How accurate polymarket? Research shows a success rate of 90 %

A new research confirmed the accuracy of the prediction platform based on Blockchain polymarket. According to the data collected and analyzed, the project is at least accurate 90 %.

Alex McColeo, the world of data based in New York, conducted the research and explained the results in a Dashboard On the dune market analysis platform. Polymark’s dashboard tracks one month, one week, a day, 12 hours, and four hours before the market is resolved.

90 % success rate

The results of the MCCULLOUGH revealed that the accurate polymarket is 90.5 % a month before the market solution, 89.2 % correct one week ago, and 88.6 % minute a day before. The platform also has a resolution of 90.2 % 12 hours before the market solution, and the number ascends to 94.2 % before the bets end.

during interview With the Polymarket Blog, Oracle, MCCULLOUFH revealed that he chose time frames because it showed the most interesting data. The data scientist said that four hours were the minimum time for the necessary time because the markets are not immediately. Sometimes, the markets take days when the expected event occurs and when the torque occurs.

McCullough measured accuracy by calculating markets of more than 50 %, which decided “Yes” and “No” correctly. He also studied historical data for polymarket and removed any severe possibilities.

Long -term markets have a higher accuracy

More discoveries revealed that prediction markets may become more accurate over time; However, this is not reflected on the platform until four hours before the stakes are resolved. While polymarket makes accurate predictions most of the time, McCullog found that bias affect the results of the platform.

The causes of prejudice on polymarket include herd mentality, low liquidity, and comfortable bias. Because of these factors, the market participants appear to exaggerate in estimating the possibility of most events with a few points. This also results that most markets are exaggerated and resolved to “yes” frequently less than expected.

When asked why the markets were more accurate a month than a day of the decision, McColeu explained that such scenarios occur during the markets that remain open for longer periods.

“The markets in the long term tend to have some options that are considered extreme locks as” no “, for example, Gavin New” has become president in the last elections. Long -term long markets tend to get more of these very confirmed results, explaining their upper accuracy as a group. “