The next federal reserve decision is just around the corner. On March 19, FOMC will announce the latest step in politics, and all its eyes on whether it will carry the interest rates fixed. According to CME Fedwatch tool, There is 99 % possibility that the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates unchanged.
This decision is very important because policy makers need a balancing slowdown in growth with the constant threat of inflation. They also need to think about how to address uncertainty, especially about political events, such as the potential influence of “uncertainty in Trump”, because political instability or measures surrounding President Trump can affect the economy.
The stock market fell to the lowest level in six months, as concerns about the slowdown in economic growth and the impact of definitions have rocked the investor’s confidence. On Monday, the release of retail sales will start in February weekly economic reports.
Nutrition to keep prices unchanged?
The sale of the last stock market raised concerns about slowing economic data, which prompted investors to expect about three discounts in interest rates from the Federal Reserve in 2025. However, with inflation is still higher than the goal of the Federal Reserve 2 % and the potential effects of customs tariffs and other policies that drive prices up, it is widespread to maintain rates of rates on Wednesday.
The main focus will be Federal Reserve Reciptures (SEP)), Which includes the “point plot” that shows the place where political makers believe that interest rates will continue. Investors will also pay close attention to the comments of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during his press conference.
Fal the patience
When another Federal Reserve has updated the DOT plot in December, I expected the Federal Reserve’s Federal Money 2025 to end between 3.75 % and 4 %, indicating discounts at the 25th Passis point this year, one lower than the market expects.
Michael Gabin, the chief American economist in Morgan Stanley, expects the Federal Reserve to emphasize “patience” due to the ongoing financial uncertainty. President Powell is believed to be optimistic with caution about the economy, but he will refer to uninterrupted expectations due to uncertainty in high policy.
You expect the third price reduction expectations
The short -term future contracts indicate that the Federal Reserve may start to reduce rates in June, with three total discounts by the end of the year. However, the chance of a third reduction in December decreased due to mixed signals – the growth of the country due to low consumer confidence and increased inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve said they will act if unemployment increases, but it focuses on controlling inflation.
The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain fixed rates at 4.25 % -4.50 % next week, with no discounts in May. Investors will closely see the updated expectations from the Federal Reserve for Hell, unemployment, and future price decisions, which will be issued on March 18. In December, the Federal Reserve expected price discounts this year.
