Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical stage in its current session, with signs that it may be separated from the past half -patterns. Unlike previous sessions, where strong marches were followed, these courses were more nonexistent. Bitcoin market movements are now largely formed through total economic transformations and new institutional impacts.
Political factors, such as Trump’s position in favor of profit and the adoption of Bitcoin at the state level, also added unexpected variables. With these new dynamics in play, the question remains: Have Bitcoin really topped the course? Or is there still a room for another crowd exceeding $ 100,000?
Did BTC separate from other courses?
The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be far from the previous one. It shows a different price path compared to the past.
Historically, Bitcoin witnessed strong marches at this stage of the course, especially in the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 phases.
However, this session witnessed a boom starting in October 2024 and December 2024, followed by monotheism in January 2025 and correction in late February.
This contradicts the previous sessions, as Bitcoin continued to gather strongly after half. Deviation indicates that the total economic factors, market structure changes, and the increasing presence of institutional investors may change the dynamics of the traditional cycle of Bitcoin.
Unlike speculative mutations that depend on the retail sale in the previous Halvings, Bitcoin is now treated as a more mature assets layer, which affects the price movement.
Another main factor is the decrease in the power in the age of bitcoin with the progress of the courses. The assemblies that were seen in 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 exceeded that course 2020-2024 and the current current.
While this is expected due to the increased market value of Bitcoin, it also reflects the increasing impact of institutional investors, banks and even governments. In the long run, it is likely to offer more stability and organized market behavior.
Despite these transformations, previous sessions also had periods of monotheism and correction before resuming their upward direction. If Bitcoin follows that previous, this stage may be a temporary re -setting before another upward step.
However, given the structural changes in the market, this cycle can be revealed differently, with less extreme fluctuation, but the longest estimate and sustainable prices instead of explosive reward peaks in the past.
The long -term MVRV holder rules a shift in the dynamics of the course
The long -term MVRV ratio of Bitcoin (LTH) clearly shows a pattern of decreasing returns through courses. In the 2016-2020 cycle, LTH MVRV reached its peak at 35.8, reflecting an extreme level of unrealized profit between long-term holders before the start of the distribution.
By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak decreased significantly to 12.2. It has shown a decrease in the general double of unreasonable profits despite the arrival of Bitcoin to the highest level ever.
In the current cycle, LTH MVRV has reached its climax so far at 4.35, indicating that long -term holders have not seen the same level of liquid profits as in previous sessions.
This sharp decrease through the courses indicates that Bitcoin oud capabilities are pressing over time, which are in line with the broader trend of decreasing the returns with the maturity of assets and market structure changes.
This data means that Bitcoin’s periodic growth has become less explosive. This is likely to the increasing impact of institutional investors and a more efficient market.
With the expansion of the maximum market, more capital flows need to pay the same percentage that was seen in the early sessions.
While this may indicate that Bitcoin’s long -term growth settles, it does not necessarily emphasize that the course has already reached its climax.
The previous sessions were periods of monotheism before reaching the final highlands. Also, institutional participation can lead to long accumulation stages instead of sudden explosion peaks.
However, if the decreasing MVRV peaks continue, this may mean that Bitcoin’s ability to provide extremist returns based on the course fades, and this cycle may have already exceeded its most aggressive growth stage.
Bitcoin expectations in the long term
Despite the differences in this course, experts remain optimistic about the long -term bitcoin prospects, especially with the increase in state adoption.
Harrison Celitsky, Director of Business Development at Space Importer, told Beincrypto:
“The expectations were advanced before the White House encryption summit on Friday, but the effects were somewhat anti -therapy. The market did not interact with a lot of excitement because the United States currently reserves a confiscation of Tescape instead of buying more actively. However, there is a lot that should be more excited than the market. It is encouraging to see that President Trump only signed an executive order for the encryption reserve – whatever it appears in practice – but we We also see this conversation to move on the state. International.
Nick Pokerren, founder of the currency office, told Beincrypto that the short -term Bitcoin path is still linked to macroeconomic conditions. It indicates the fact that investors in the current session have unrealistic expectations from the Bitcoin Crypto Reserve.
It is worth noting that there is an increasing perception that the United States government will buy new billions of BTC, causing the show shock. From any economic or political concept, that was not possible.
It is difficult to imagine that Congress approves such a purchase of taxpayer money to invest in risk assets. This unrealistic expectation was an incentive for current price corrections.
“The current encryption process reveals an inconsistency between expectations and reality. The reserve will now constitute only an encryption that the United States government has already in its ownership and will not buy a new BTC in the market. It is also important to note that there are no encryption prices or stocks on the highest Trump’s agenda. In fact, he even rejected the decrease in stock prices as the work of globalization. At the same time, improving the organizational scene and promised integration with traditional financial bars The important encryption role will be enhanced by the American financial scene.
Based on all of this, this course appears to be different from that previous. Therefore, despite the recent corrections, the BTC may not have been released yet.
New factors such as institutional adoption, Trump encryption position, and geopolitical tensions make historical comparisons less reliable. Unlike previous sessions, the bitcoin price does not follow a clear gathering after half.
At the same time, uncertainty is above ever. Total conditions, trade war, and changing American policies add complexity. With Bitcoin is now part of the global financial system, its price interacts with more than just half sessions. The path forward is not clear, but the course was not necessarily over.
Disintegration
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