Stablecoins – the square -tied currencies to stable assets such as the US dollar – takes a growing interest from higher payment companies. Recent reports claim that Stablecoin transactions have exceeded the visa.
However, industry experts are skeptical of these numbers. This article explores the reasons behind this doubt.
Why experts suspect that the size of Stablecoin may enlarge
Recently, Chamath Palihapitiya, CEO of Social Capital, posted on X that the volume of weekly transactions for Stablecoins exceeded the volume of the visa, as it reached more than $ 400 billion. He added that companies like visa, MasterCardAnd the tape actively embraces the trend.
According to the data, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the average weekly transaction transaction volume reached $ 464 billion. This is much higher than a 319 billion dollar visa. Bit report Estimates Stablecoins processing about 13.5 trillion dollars in the volume of transactions in 2024. This is the first time that the STALCOIN is over the annual visa.
At first glance, this looks like a major landmark, indicating that Stablecoins can reshape the future of global payments. Even Citigroup may reach that the Stablecoin market may reach $ 3.7 trillion by 2030.
Not everyone shares enthusiasm. Some experts have warned that the amount of stablecoin the amount may be amplified. They argue that it does not reflect a real economic activity and should not be compared directly to traditional systems such as Visa.
Joe, Adviser to MAVEN 11 Capital, Indicate Professional merchants can generate hundreds of millions of size using very little capital.
“If you have $ 100,000 from USDC on Solana, you can do $ 136 million in” Stablecoin size “for $ 1,” He said.
Use Solana as an example. Solana is a group of fast Blockchain with very low transaction fees – around it 0.0036 dollars For each treatment. Jo joking with $ 3400, someone can double the weekends. He indicated that the scale is easy to manipulate and is not truly reliable.
Dan Smith, data expert in Blockworks Research, strongly supported the point of Joe. Condemning Make up The use of flash loans – similar loans in Defi – can increase their size at lower costs.
Flash loans allow users to borrow large sums without guarantees, as long as they are paid in the same transaction. This allows tampering with size without the need for large capital, and increasing doubts about the numbers mentioned by Palihapitiya.
Rajev, a member of Framework Ventures, was more direct. he The name Stablecoin A size is a “useless scale”. Dan Smith agreed. he Add Unusually large size indicates exploitative behavior within the system.
Washing trading and robot circulation undermines the economic value
One of the main reasons for experts doubts about the size of Stablecoin is the presence of washing trading and robot trading.
Trading in washing includes buying and selling between the portfolio controlled by the same person or entity frequently. The goal is to amplify the volume of transactions artificially. Trading Bot uses automatic programs to make trades, often for fake or fake liquidity.
The Stablecoin deal with a value of only one million dollars may be transferred between two wallets owned by the same person. It does not add any real economic value. This contrasts sharply with Visa, as every treatment usually represents a real purchase or payment process, such as buying goods or services.
Last year, Visa information board also stated that only 10 % of Stablecoin’s transactions were real. A The trading report is washed Through the analysis, I found that laundry deals that include ERC-20 and BEP-20 distinctive symbols could reach $ 2.57 billion in size in 2024.
Disintegration
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