Singapore, May 15, 2025 / PRNEWSWIRE / – Since the beginning of May, the macro wind has gained momentum – inflation has been cooled, commercial tensions began to mitigate, and Federal reserve inject fresh liquidity. Bitcoin rose to more than $ 100,000, as ETH and Sol also spread strong gains. However, under the surface of this gathering, the risk of volatility remains. In this edition of HTX Deepthink, Chloe (@Chloetalk1From HTX Research disintegration of macro stimuli, institutional activity, and the market structure to assess whether this gathering can really last.
Price discount expectations are reinforced, federal reserve liquidity improves
The US Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which was released on May 13, 2025, showed more cooling, which enhances market expectations to reduce interest rates later this year. The main CPI increased by 2.3 % on an annual basis (compared to 2.4 % expected, 2.6 %), on the occasion of the lowest level since March 2021; Core CPI was 2.8 % (consistent with expectations, 3.0 % previous). However, it is important to note that the preferred inflation scale of the Federal Reserve, the Basic PCE, reached 2.3 % in March, is still higher than 2 %.
Market support also arose from the stage of expanding total liquidity. The total assets of the Federal Reserve increased slightly from 6.70 trillion dollars on April 30 to 6.73 trillion dollars in early May. Fed (Public Budget + TGA – RRP) increased from $ 4.89 trillion to $ 4.94 trillion during the same period, pumping about $ 50 billion in net liquidity. Meanwhile, the balance of the US Treasury account (TGA) rose to $ 583 billion, while the reversal of the RRP fell to a record level of $ 78 billion. This improvement in liquidity was mainly driven by slow QT (reducing the treasury to $ 5 billion), post -tax cash flows, and money market boxes that re -allocate capital from RRP.
However, there is still a great danger: if the debt ceiling agreement is reached in July or August, the large tag reservoir rejuvenation, along with almost a degenerate RRP warehouse, can lead to the tightening of the system liquidity again, which may exercise the declining pressure on risk assets.
Rally Crypto Rallly Institutions Flows
The encryption market flows greatly strengthened. Bitcoin (BTC) remained an open benefit (OI) at high levels, with CME data that appears about 660,000 BTC, representing 3.4 % of the circulating offer, with highlighting strong institutional sites. The BTC OI also increased on the original encoded stock exchanges by 12 %, with the positions largely focused on the level of $ 100,000. ETHEREUM (ETH) and Solana (SOL) derivatives also witnessed a strong recovery, as ETH OI increased by 15 % since the first week of May and 18 % of its lowest levels in late April. The data on the series showed that the short -term ETH profit (STH) takes a profit to approximately 90 % and Sol to 88 %, and approaches historically high thresholds (> 90 % usually indicates the higher local risk), which increases fears of profit pressure in the short term.
Data from Deribit showed that implicit fluctuations in the near -term Bitcoin options decreased from 65 % before the release of the consumer price index to 58 %, which reflects the expectations of price stability in the short term and encourage some institutions to sell options to capture installments. The ETH Options Market offered a long bullish structure, with a strong demand for call options ranging from $ 4,000 to $ 5,000 in December, indicating that institutional investors put early in the next possible assembly.
The macro wind leads the bullish bias, but the fluctuation risk remaining
In short, a mixture of expansion of total liquidity, expectations for strengthening central processing prices, the allocation of continuous institutions, and a bounce in the risks of the derivative market have pushed a strong appetite in May in BTC, ETH and Sol.
However, in the short term, the high percentage of short -term holders in profit and the focus of the outstanding situations means that any outbreak or collapse of the main technical levels can lead to a profit and concentrated profit, which leads to high volatility. The total market structure remains defined by a medium -term structural bull with a short -term unification stage.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or request to submit or recommend any investment product.
About HTX Deepthink:
HTX Deepthink is a leading column in the pioneering market that HTX has created, dedicated to exploring global total trends, major economic indicators, and major developments in the encryption industry. In a world where volatility is the base, HTX Deepthink aims to help readers.Find the matter in chaos“
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the HTX search arm, responsible for conducting in -depth analyzes, producing comprehensive reports, providing expert evaluations through a wide range of topics, including cryptocurrency, Blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
