With the next American federal reserve meeting, just around the corner May 7, merchants and analysts appear To agree on one thing: there is almost no chance to increase or reduce this time. But this does not mean that the market is calm, away from it.
All eyes are now on what Jerome Powell will say during the press conference, and how the economy leads to a head to June.
May: No expected change
Polymarekt, prediction market, It is expected that there will be 98 % The Federal Reserve opportunity will not change the prices in its meeting in May. On the other hand, there is another possibility that there is a chance of 2 % of a decrease of 25 basis points in May.
With inflation slowly cooling, but it is still 2 % higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal. Although the prices range from 5.25 % to 5.50 %, which is the highest level in more than two decades, the central bank appears to be the content to wait and watch.
But while almost a “temporary stop” in May, the markets are not only looking at what the Federal Reserve is doing, they are closely listening to what the Federal Reserve Speaker Jerome Powell says.
June: a turning point?
June is the place where things become interesting, with the possibility An opportunity 72 % The Federal Reserve will not change the prices at its meeting in June. The additional market risk indicates a 25 % opportunity to reduce prices, and this number may rise if job growth slows or lowers inflation.
This makes future reports on inflation and functions. A weak work report on the work or the most entertaining consumer price data can raise the balance towards lowering prices.
On the other hand, if the inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may adhere to its current position or until it begins to talk about the high rates for a longer period.
Powell’s tone is more important than ever
Interestingly, the market may interact more with the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell more than the Federal Reserve. If he speaks very difficult, using phrases such as “persistent inflation” or “not progressing enough”, can sell the markets sharply.
Technology shares and sensitive sectors may decrease, bond returns may rise quickly, and the US dollar may gain strength, and may lose assets such as bitcoin or gold vapor.
