According to Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Bitcoin value model, the encryption industry can be on the lips of the other bear market.
This analysis comes at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its cautious position on interest rates despite the continued economic uncertainty.
The analyst explains how the bear market can be revealed
In his latest analysis, he participated on X (Twitter), Peterson warned that the market is currently exaggerated. This, he says, makes it vulnerable to shrinkage. While such a decline needs an operator, it indicates that the decision of the Federal Reserve to maintain fixed interest rates may be sufficient to remove it.
It is time to talk about the next bear market. There is no reason to believe that it cannot happen now. The evaluation justifies that. What you need is the trigger. I think this operator may be simple as the Federal Reserve does not reduce rates of rates at all this year. books Peterson.
Peterson analysis draws similarities between decline in the previous market and the current conditions. Using NASDAQ as a reference point, it is estimated that the bear market can last anywhere from 7 to 14 months.
Given that Nasdak has been estimated at 28 %, it expects a 17 % decrease, reducing the index to 15,000.
By applying these expectations to Bitcoin, Peterson expects a decrease of approximately 33 %, prompting the price of Bitcoin to about $ 57,000.
“Hit by 1.9. 17 % decrease in nasdaq = 33 % decrease in BTC -> $ 57,000,” Peterson Add.
However, it is noted that opportunistic investors can be taken early. Such intervention can prevent bitcoin from a decrease in this depression, and may find support about $ 71,000.
This is in line with a recent analysis of Arthur Hayes. As Beincrypto said, Bitmex founder claimed that Bitcoin has declined to $ 70,000 before a possible recovery.
Analysts also High Bitcoin air gap is less than 93,198 dollars, with little support to a large extent up to about $ 70,000.
The role of the federal reserve in the market shrinkage
Meanwhile, about a month ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is not in a hurry to reduce interest rates. Repeat these notes during his speech last week. Speaking at a New York Policy Forum, Powell stressed the need for patience.
“We do not need to be in a hurry, and we are in a good position to wait for greater clarity,” Powell I mentioned.
Powell’s comments come amid the economic uncertainty fueled by President Donald Trump’s political changes in trade, immigration, financial policy and organization. As inflation is about 2.5 %, the Fed Bank focuses on facing these challenges with caution.
Despite market expectations for price discounts this year, Powell explained that the Federal Reserve will wait and see before controlling monetary policy.
In addition to concerns about an imminent decrease inspired by FED, Bitcoin has recently decreased after the Federal Reserve warned of the potential stagnation. The Federal Reserve expected a 2.8 % decrease in the GDP for the first quarter (Q1) in 2025, which led to fears of economic instability. This affected the investor’s feeling negatively.
Despite these warnings, Peterson is still not convinced that the full bear market is imminent. He argues that the current market conditions are not active such as the previous bubbles. The analyst also explains that the emotional feelings between investors can indicate a long -term purchase chance instead of a sale signal.
Beincrypto data shows that Bitcoin has been trading $ 86.026 to this writing, a decrease of 0.1 % since the opening of the Sunday session.
Disintegration
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