- DXY is trading near the 104.20 area after a mixed reaction to the PMI data and job opportunities.
- Manufacturing activity contracts and slowing employment, while maintaining the risk of stagnation in playing.
- The resistance was seen about 104.84 with the assembly of support near 104.13.
The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is trading near the 104.20 region on Tuesday, which indicates a little bias in the direction after a series of US economic data versions. ISM printing ISM is more weaker than expected, declining in functionality holes, and FED caution, draw a mysterious look at Greenback. Despite the modest gains, the technical background is still fragile as traders look forward to more macro drivers later this week.
Market Daily Digest engines: The US dollar is stability, as cracks expand in the data
- The USM ISM information index fell to 49 in March from 50.3 in February, and the loss of 49.5 expectations.
- The employment index in the sector has decreased to 44.7, which is its lowest level since last July, indicating a faster pace of cuts in jobs.
- The price index rose to 69.4 out of 62.4, noting the regeneration of inflationary pressure amid the issues of display related to the tariff.
- The head of the ISM business survey committee said that the demand is still confusing companies with discounts in production and production discounts.
- Jolts employment opportunities in the United States fell to 7.56 million in February, less than expectations and confirmation of softening the labor market.
- The total appointments and separators remain unchanged at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
- Fed’s Barkin warned of the difficulty of reading the current data, describing it as “wrapped in thick fog.”
- Despite the low job opportunities, the updated Sep on the Federal Reserve updated a stable unemployment rate approaches 4.4 % in 2025.
- Currency markets look less interactive with customs tariffs, with more focus on signs of economic recession or contraction.
- Merchants became increasingly cautious before the salary salary report on Friday (NFP).
- CME data shows low prices to reduce prices, but pressure can build with more disappointments in the data.
- DXY continues to drift between 104.00 and 105.00 as a market search for condemnation.
- Risk morale is still fragile with merchants from the additional passive side in stocks and bonds.
Technical analysis
The US dollar index publishes modest gains on Tuesday, but the broader technical expectations are still landing. The deviation of the moving medium rapprochement (MACD) still indicates a potential upward intersection, but long -term indicators such as simple moving averages for 100 days and 200 days (SMA), as well as the SIA moving average for 30 days (EMA), continues to flash sales signals.
The RSI index (RSI) in 76.92, along with random readings, refers to excessive conditions at its peak, while the wonderful oscillator remains neutral. SMA for 20 days provides moderate bullish support. The resistance is located in 104.435, 104.841 and 104.847, while support is near 104.169, 104.165 and 104.128.
Common questions about employment
Labor market conditions are a major element in assessing the health of the economy and thus the main driver to evaluate the currency. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive effects on consumer spending and economic growth, which enhances the value of the local currency. Moreover, the very narrow labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can have effects on inflation levels because the decrease in supply in employment and high demand leads to high wages.
The pace with salaries in the economy is the key to policy makers. High wage growth means that families have more money for spending, and usually lead to an increase in prices in consumer goods. Unlike the most volatile inflation sources such as energy prices, wages are seen as a major component in the basic and continuous inflation as it is unlikely to be removed from the increase in salaries. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when making a decision on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank is appointed to the conditions of the labor market depends on its goals. Some central banks explicitly have states related to the labor market, which exceeds inflation levels. The American Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has a double mandate to enhance the maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the only mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain inflation under control. However, despite any mandates they have, the conditions of labor market are an important factor for policy makers given their importance as a criterion for the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
