- Greenback returned to green on strong NFP numbers
- The focus now is to the President of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, speaks.
- The US dollar index has returned above 102.00 and is looking to close it over the level before the weekend.
The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar (USD) against six major currencies, gather after some strong salary salaries. China is launched in the US tariffs by imposing a 34 % tariff on all American goods as of April 10, a day after the US tariff. The focus is now about Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) President of Jerome Powell’s speech even after that.
on Economic evaluation Front, issuing non -agricultural salary statements (NFPIt came in 228,000, away from the consensus consensus of 135,000. The most positive expectations were 200,000, which was an external surprise. Now, the focus moves to the Federal Reserve to see if the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell can change or support the current position in DXY.
Daily Digest Market Movers: External Surprise
- American recruitment data for March:
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- The non -agricultural salaries lists reached 228,000, overcoming the consensus of 135,000 and optimism compared to 151,000 in February.
- The average monthly clock profits remained stable at 0.3 %.
- The unemployment rate came by 4.2 %, with a touch above 4.1 % from February.
- At 15:25 GMT, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell talks about economic expectations at the Association for the Liberation of Business and Writing (SABEW).
- At 16:00 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Bar will talk about artificial intelligence and banking services.
- Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller will speak at 16:45 GMT at the Federal Reserve Conference in New York.
- Killing on the commercial floor with losses in Europe is about 3 % -4 % while American stocks dive near 2 %.
- According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the possibility of the remaining interest rates in the current range of 4.25 % -4.50 % at the May meeting is 68.1 %, from 81.5 % last week. For the June meeting, borrowing costs are 92.6 % lower, while the probability was approximately 81.1 %.
- US revenues are traded for about 10 years by about 3.94 %, which is the lowest new level for five months with the lowest level in the proximity of 3.69 % from the beginning of October 2024.
Technical analysis of the US dollar index: again in green
The pendulum of the US dollar index swinging, with strength on the left and weakness on the right. On the left, there were years of the power of the US dollar, which was seen as a market standard. However, since the beginning of March – with a draft defense budget spending law and US President Donald Trump in his post – the pendulum swing from DXY. More weak US dollar is likely to be as soon as the effect of a tariff on the American economy begins to have its impact. With fears of stagnation and stagnation, DXY can easily decrease to less than 100.00 later this year.
With the great declining move on Thursday, some support levels turned into resistance. The first level to pay attention is 103.18, which was supported as support throughout the month of March. Above there, the axial level 104.00 and the simple moving average for 200 days (SMA) is operated at 104.89.
On the negative side, 101.90 is the first defense line and must be able to run the bounce as an index of the proportional power index (RSI) issues warnings from the daily sale conditions on the daily table. Perhaps this is not Friday, but in the coming days, you can see a break less than 101.90 legs less about 100.00.
US dollar index: daily chart
Common questions about employment
Labor market conditions are an essential element in assessing the health of the economy and thus the main driver to evaluate the currency. High labor, or low unemployment, has positive effects on consumer spending and thus economic growth, which enhances the value of the local currency. Moreover, the very narrow labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can have effects on inflation levels, and therefore monetary policy leads to a decrease in employment and high demand to high wages.
The pace with salaries in the economy is the key to policy makers. High wage growth means that families have more money for spending, and usually lead to an increase in prices in consumer goods. Unlike the most volatile inflation sources such as energy prices, wages are seen as a major component in the basic and continuous inflation as it is unlikely to be removed from the increase in salaries. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when making a decision on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank is appointed to the conditions of the labor market depends on its goals. Some central banks explicitly have states related to the labor market, which exceeds inflation levels. The American Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has a double mandate to enhance the maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the only mandate of the European Central Bank (ECB) is to maintain inflation under control. However, despite any mandates they have, the conditions of labor market are an important factor for policy makers given their importance as a criterion for the health of the economy and its direct relationship to inflation.
