The US governor should rotate $ 9 by the end of 2026 (many of that was in short to medium-term-3, 3 and 5-year-olds with a heavy piece in 10-year bonds released in 2016 as well).
The case: The revenue increased (10 years of bonds by 4.2 %, which is three times what the government paid when it spoils the 8N 2020 by 1.3 %). $ 9T at 4 % versus 1 % add 270B+year. The Federal Reserve knows that in this %, if it is widely borrowed, it hardly has a room to keep the lights.
Meanwhile, the total national debt is $ 34 million due to tax cuts (2017), Covid ($ 5T+), military spending, and increasing interest payments. This is the monster 
They want to move away from blowing.
The goal: re-financing in the lower returns before the debt bomb explodes, the demand for capital decreases, the moderate stagnation (it is only sufficient to shave the basic points 50-100, and control the long end of the curve (10Y)- the real criterion for financial stability- # the empire’s contract together)
How: Customs tariffs (destruction of demand, slow employment and employment), economic nationalism (uncertainty about global trade, migration, chaos of energy policy + currency manipulation) = slow growth, suppression of inflation expectations, reducing bond fluctuation, and drifting.
At the head of the superpower full of debt (i.e. modern great power), your first duty is to protect your ability to refinance.
This is exactly what the United States did in:
- 11-13: Insulation + QE
- 20-21: Refi at 0 %, then the motivation explosion
- 24-26: Slow economy -> Refi -> Re -motivation
When will the gates open? Once:
- The most 9 meters (End End Q1 2027) is re -financing.
- Return 10-returns less than 3.25 % (perfectly less than 2.5 %)
- Inflation is about 2-2.5 %
- FED enjoys an aid to return to residence (QE, low rates) = we may not see a real relief until late 26/early 27, unless there is a severe financial crisis earlier.
Public budget and technology/capital depletion: The Federal Reserve Bank reduces its public budget via QT (tightening quantitative – leaving assets {the Federal Reserve, our weight and MBS} keeps mature without re -investment), and at the same time:
- Tec & Crypto is intentionally reduced.
- Silicon Valley was a liquidity engine: flow with pandemic money, gained capital, hiring it strongly, and led the asset bubbles.
- By tightening policy, the Federal Reserve is bleeding from the speculative surplus of these sectors to re -inflation and capital flows to safer assets (the treasury), technology and encryption are sensitive to liquidity:
- Its value on future profits (higher rates -> futuristic profits are further reduced -> Low assessments). When the prices rise, the QE stop, the FED/let’s ripen assets = less money -> VCs withdraw again -> Startups Starve -> Crypto Cold.
Why is the 10 -year return standard for financial stability (the most important association in the world)?
- Anchor for long -term borrowing costs
- Mortgaging real estate, corporate debts, student loans, all of which is a key outside 10y
- It reflects the expectations of inflation and real growth
- If it remains low, investors believe that the United States is stable. *The US Federal Reserve deficit is 2T/Y, a benefit on debt crossed 1.1T/Y – More than half of the new borrowing goes only to pay interest === Control of the return = National Survival Strategy
