The stock market reaches a record estimate; Here is what history expects after that
While the stock market witnessed a short -term correction, the evaluation levels have reached historical levels, indicating a possible direction.
The peak of the market exceeded 2025 from 1929, 1966 and 1999, with the main evaluation measures, including the rates of backward price and coding (P/E) and the maximum rate of the market to GDP, up to extremist levels, according to the research before Bloomberg Simon White, as subscriber by Parchart On February 23.
It is worth noting that the review of the extremist parties in the previous market indicates that the decline has often followed. For example, after the peak of 1929, the Great Depression spent a large capital.
In 1966, the expanded bear market witnessed that the S&P 500 was subject to a multi -year stagnation. Recently, the notorious Dot-Com bubble surveyed high assessments in 1999.
More importantly, the previous evaluation peaks and subsequent disruption were characterized by enormous speculation, high growth expectations, and intense prices – the conditions that are very similar to the market environment today.
The current market momentum, which pushed the S&P 500 to new records, was largely driven by the technology sector. Companies in artificial intelligence space (AI), such as NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Palantir (Nasdaq: PLTR), led the charge.
However, the height of the meteorite in PLTR has already prompted the caution of some of the Wall Street analysts, who warn that stocks may be disrupted if it fails to meet the growth expectations.
Meanwhile, NVIDIA recently saw a sharp sale after Deepseek AI appeared, which was reported to have used less resources than that of the chip maker. This development raised fears that major technology giants may reduce the spending of artificial intelligence.
S & P 500, warning of the rolling difference
There is another potential warning sign on the market contraction also showing directions within the S&P 500. Data from Parchart On February 23, he explained that despite the year Climb The momentum, the percentage of shares traded above the moving average for 200 days (MA) is declining.
This trend is a declining difference, indicating that fewer stocks participate in the assembly, and it is a warning that momentum may weaken under the surface. Historically, such differences preceded the corrections of the market.
It should be noted in particular that the economists Henrik Zipberg expects the index to gather to new levels of levels before suffering from a catastrophic accident that can exceed the contraction in 1929. According to the expert, a few can do to change the path of the expected accident.
Meanwhile, although the market optimism remains in the long run, the fluctuations remain, and partially nourishes President Donald Trump’s announcement of commercial definitions and the uncertainty surrounding the decision of the following interest in the Federal Reserve.
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