The euro/the US dollar traded aside amid uncertainty about commercial talks between the United States and China
- EUR/USD turns around 1.1350 where investors are looking for new signals about trade relations between the United States and China.
- The European Central Bank is expected to reduce interest rates again at the June meeting.
- The European Central Bank knot sees the trauma of demand and inflation due to Trump’s tariff in the short term.
EUR/USD is traded in a very narrow range around 1.1350 at the beginning of the week. The main currency pair is on mystery to employment discussions between the United States (the United States) and China. Diars from Washington and Beijing talked about whether US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have talked about commercial conditions that forced investors to stay on the margin.
President Trump stated that employment discussions between Washington and Beijing are going well. However, China denied these statements, saying that there were no “economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States.” “China and the United States have no advice or negotiations on definitions,” a spokesman for the Chinese embassy said.
After comments from Beijing, Trump said in an interview with Time magazine that Shi Jinping, Chinese, had invited him. Trump said, “He was called,” he added, “I don’t think this is a sign of weakness on his behalf.” Trump also explained late on Friday that Shi has called several times since he revealed the customs tariff plan. “I don’t want to comment on that, but I spoke to him several times,” Trump told reporters, Reuters said.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury Department, Scott Besent, has not confirmed any trade talks between the presidents of the United States and China. “I don’t know if President Trump has spoken to President Xi,” Pesint said.
During the European trading hours on Monday, the US dollar (the US dollar) is rising, as it stuck to the recovery movement last week, which was driven by the hope of eliminating the escalation of the tariff war between the two largest forces in the world. This week, the main operator of the US dollar will be a large group of American economic data, including NFP Looks (NFP) on Friday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: EUR/USD is trading side
- EUR/USD is traded as EURO (EUR) is cautious before Flash Harmonized for consumer price data (HICP) in April and Q1 GDP (GDP) from the eurozone and its main countries, which will be published this week. Inflation and economic growth data will significantly affect the market expectations for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
- According to the market expectations, HICP will return the eurozone title to the goal of the European Central Bank of 2 %, which is the slowest growth in price pressures since October 2024. In March, inflation data increased by 2.2 %. GDP growth in the euro area is estimated at 0.2 % QOQ in the first quarter. The growth of moderate inflation would increase the confidence of traders that the European Central Bank will reduce interest rates again at the June Policy meeting.
- Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Saturday that European Central Bank policy makers have become increasingly confident in lowering interest rates in June as inflation continues. However, there is no slim or non -existent appetite for a large movement. However, the report did not highlight the names of European Central Bank officials who led the chances of expanding monetary policy.
- The European Central Bank of the Central Bank of the Dutch Central Bank, Class Kenot, said in an interview with Dutch Financial Daily FD during the weekend that the monetary monetary policy in June would be more “complicated” because the risk of long -term inflation was granted on “both sides.” The caution knot indicated that the US tariff policy by the United States can lead to a decrease in demand and inflation in the short term. “In the short term, it is 100 % clear that the trauma of demand will dominate, so inflation will decrease,” Note said.
- On the Global Front, he kept uncertainty about trade relations between the United States and eurosone on the sidelines. The Economic Commissioner of the European Union (EU) has expressed Valdes Dombrovscis Trading about their concerns about a deal with the United States in the short term, while talking to correspondents on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund meetings (IMF) in Washington. “There is a lot of work in the future to reach more concrete teachers, elements and areas of cooperation that would allow us to avoid implementing definitions,” said Dombrovscis.
Technical Analysis: Yer/US dollar is about 1.1350
The euro/the US dollar is circulating about 1.1350 in the European session on Monday. The pair of the main currency pair is still upward, as the SIA moving average for 20 weeks (EMA) is increasing at a height of about 1.0885.
The relative strength index climbs for 14 weeks (RSI) to short levels of peak over 70.00 in the weekly graph, indicating a strong bullish momentum, but some correction chances cannot be excluded.
Looking at the top, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the main resistance of the husband. On the contrary, the highest level in July 2023 of 1.1276 will be a major support for the euro wealth.
Common questions euro
The euro is the currency of the 19 European Union countries belonging to the eurozone. It is the second most traded currency in the world behind the US dollar. In 2022, it represented 31 % of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily rotation of more than $ 2.2 trillion per day. EUR/USD is the most trading currency pair in the world, which represents an estimated 30 % of all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4 %), EUR/GBP (3 %) and EUR/AUD (2 %).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the backup bank. The European Central Bank sets interest rates and runs monetary policy. The primary mandate in the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary performance is to raise or reduce interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or expect higher rates – usually benefit from the euro and vice versa. The Board of Directors of the European Central Bank is making monetary policy decisions at eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of national banks in the eurozone and six permanent members, including the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde.
The inflation data in the euro area, measured by a coordinated index of consumer prices (HICP), is an important economist for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if it is 2 % higher than the European Central Bank’s goal, then the European Central Bank is obliged to raise interest rates to return it in control. Relatively high interest rates usually benefit compared to its euro counterparts, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to stop their money.
Data ejaculates a measurement of economics health and can affect the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing, PMIS, employment services, and consumer morale surveys can affect the trend of uniform currency. The strong economy is useful for the euro. Not only is to attract more foreign investment, but the European Central Bank may encourage interest rates, which will enhance the euro directly. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the euro is likely to decrease. Economic data of the four economies in the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are of particular importance, because it represents 75 % of the eurozone economy.
Other important version of the euro is the commercial balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country gains from its exports and what it spends on imports during a certain period. If a country produces very absolute after exports, its currency will obtain a purely value of the additional demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy these goods. Therefore, the positive and positive trade balance enhances the currency and vice versa to achieve a negative balance.
