The consumer price index in Australia is scheduled to reveal more mitigation in inflation in the first quarter
- The Australian consumer price index is expected to be 2.3 % in March.
- Consumer price index is expected to reduce less than 3 %, with basic numbers in RBA.
- The Australian Reserve Bank will meet in mid -May to decide on monetary policy.
- It reduces the Australian dollar against its American rival after reaching the highest level in 2025.
Australia will issue multiple inflation numbers on Wednesday and financial markets expect to reduce prices at the beginning of 2025, which paves the way for additional interest rates at the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). The central bank aims to meet to take a decision on monetary policy on May 19.
Returning to data, the Australian Statistics Office (ABS) will publish various inflation measures: Copy Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for the first quarter of 2025 and monthly CPI in March, which measures annual prices over the past twelve months. The semester report includes the average consumer price index, which is the preferred scale of inflation for policy makers.
RBA maintained the official money price (OCR) to wait 4.10 % when early April met, after presenting 25 basis points (BPS) in February, the first after a long -distance walking cycle that started in 2022.
What do you expect from the inflation rate numbers in Australia?
ABS is expected to mention that the monthly consumer price index increased by 2.3 % per year to March, which reduces 2.4 % published in February. The separation consumer price index is expected to increase by 0.8 % over a quarter of a quarter of (QOQ) and 2.2 % on an annual basis (YOY) in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, it is expected that the preferred scale of the Central Bank, which is the average RBA introductions in the previous quarter.
Finally, the average RBA price index is expected to increase by 0.7 % of QOQ, which is above 0.5 % previously published. However, the numbers will be included in the RBA goal in maintaining inflation between 2 and 3 %, which means that the central bank can provide additional discounts in interest rates in the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, the economic activity in the country, as measured by GDP (GDP), was modest in the last quarter of 2025, with the growth of GDP 0.6 % at real value, exceeding 0.5 % market expectations, and putting signs of the strongest performance since December 2022. The annual growth rate of 1.3 % exceeds exceeding The total compatibility of 1.2 %. The modest progress led to the dismay of the ghost of the recession, although the economy has not yet left the forest.
Finally, it should be noted that GDP growth in Australia is expected to reach about 2.2 % in 2025, according to the latest expectations from RBA. Besides the goal of central banks, lukewarm growth was part of the decision of policy makers to reduce interest rates, to help avoid the most severe economic setback.
Meanwhile, the President of the United States (United States), Donald Trump, began a global trade war. After announcing the customs tariff for neighboring countries, Trump launched a “mutual tariff” on most commercial partners. Australia fell into a 10 % foundation tax while a 25 % tariff faces all steel and aluminum exports in the United States. However, most tensions lie between China and the United States, with hundreds of definitions. China is a major commercial partner in Australia, and the local economy may suffer from tensions between the largest economies of the world.
In addition, concerns about the impact of the trade war on the US economy keep the US dollar (USD) on the back foot. The US dollar fell to its lowest level in 2025 against most of the main competitors in April and maintains its soft accent, regardless of the market feeling.
“If there is a great tariff in China, Chinese trade is likely to try to find other ways to find an outlet. Australia may be beneficial from that. So, in fact, we may find some contraction of Australia if it comes out in this way.”
How can the consumer price index report affect AUD/USD?
The inflation numbers are, as usual, decisive. Emandy pressure should be reduced to the RBA rate in May.
In general, the higher consumer price index numbers will be up to AUD amid RBA falcons expectations. However, the opposite scenario is also valid: the relief of inflation can push politicians towards a more occurrence.
Facing to the CPI version, AUD/USD is trading on a 0.6400 brand, as it fell from the highest annual level of 0.6450.
“The AUD/USD husband works to unify the gains and although the upcoming issue remains firm in place. Technical readings in the daily graph indicate that the husband may correct less, as technical indicators remain from its last peak near excessive readings.
“Aud/USD pair must find preliminary support in the near -term in the 0.6340 area, with additional slides on the price area 0.6280, as the upper SMA (SMA) (SMA) is required with a SMA extension. 0.6500 figure.”
Economic indicator
Consumer Prices Index (YOY)
Consumer Prices Index (CPI), whose chest Australian Statistics Office On a quarterly basis, it measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services acquired by families consumers. The consumer price index is a major indicator for measuring inflation and changes in purchase. Yoy reading compares prices in the reference quarter to the same quarter of the previous year. High reading is seen as bullies of the Australian dollar (AUD), while low reading is seen as declining.
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Common questions between the United States of China for war
In general, the trade war is an economic conflict between the two countries or more due to severe protectionism at one party. It involves the creation of commercial barriers, such as customs tariffs, which lead to anti -import barriers, and to import costs, and thus the cost of living.
The economic conflict between the United States (the United States) and China began in early 2018, when President Donald Trump laid commercial barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and theft of intellectual property from the Asian giant. China has taken retaliatory measures and imposed a tariff on multiple American goods, such as cars and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the commercial deal for the first stage of the United States of China in January 2020. The agreement requires structural reforms and other changes on the economic and commercial system in China and demonstrated by restoring stability and confidence between the two countries. However, the Koronavus virus’s pandemic took the focus from the conflict. However, it should be noted that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, maintained the customs tariff in his place and added some additional fees.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House as an American president ignited 47 new waves of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60 % of the customs tariff on China once he returns to his position, which he did on January 20, 2025. With the emergence of Trump, the American trade war and China aim to resume the place where it was left, with policies for corrections that affect global economic records in nutrition in nutrition.
