⚈ It is noted that the uncertainty in commercial policy eats confidence and risks contraction
⚈ The chances of the recession for 2025 increased to 72 %, echoing warnings from other experts
Mark Zandy, the chief economist in Moody’s Analytics, warned of the recent prospects for the American economy in the short term, and urged companies and investors to “bund” in the difficult 2025.
Zandy pointed to the high risk of escalating definitions, a deep commercial war, and a possibility of an increase in global recession. interview With David Lin published on May 2.
The economist has drawn a bleak picture, saying that the possibilities of global recession start this year now exceeding 50 %.
“At best, the prospects for the growth of the economy decreased due to definitions and commercial war,” he said.
He stressed that the uncertainty caused by the current trade policies erodes confidence and feeling, and may lead the economy to contraction.
Zandy also noted that the future path of the economy depends on commercial policy decisions. However, he expressed optimism, and warned that prolonged uncertainty may become “too much to bear” for the economy.
“If the administration is able to make a decision outside the grants, reduce customs tariffs, and get rid of the trade war, we have a combat shot to avoid contraction,” Zandy explained.
Therefore, expecting “difficult to six to 12 months”, regardless of whether the full recession occurs.
The sectors that must be affected by the recession
In his outlook, it is expected that a mixture of economic uncertainty and the weakness of growth prospects is expected to be significantly on real estate markets, which already face demand and financing challenges.
It is worth noting that Zandy joins an increasing number of market experts who expect a possible economic contraction led by trade tensions.
JPMorgan, Jimmy Damon, CEO of JPMorgan, warned that commercial tensions of the United States of China and the definitions of the Trump era can lead to a decrease in the profits of the S&P 500 and lead to a possible stagnation.
Meanwhile, economist Steve Hank estimated a 90 % chance of the recession 2025, while Bridgower Ray Dalio’s founder issued a flagrant warning, indicating that the United States may face deeper regular challenges if the monetary system is not carefully managed.
Meanwhile, with the slowdown in economic growth in the United States in the first quarter, the chances of the recession 2025 increased on the betting markets, as it increased by 72 %.
Watch the full interview below
Distinctive image via Shutterstock
