Trump’s tariff can be climbed further – to the top since 1872 – before it was reduced again as a cycle of revenge and escalation.

• President Donald Trump’s tariff It can reach an effective rate of up to 30 %, an increase of 25 % under its recently announced plans, according to UBS analysts. A highly declining rate represents the highest level in more than 150 years. But after a cycle of revenge and escalation, UBS see the tariff that goes down to the bottom later this year.

“Liberation Day” has already recognized President Donald Trump to the most important levels of a century, but it may rise.

According to Note from UBS analysts On Friday, the latest taxes of actual modified import taxes will be sent to 25 %, an increase of 2.5 % before the 2024 elections. But it is unlikely to stop there.

“We believe that the European Union and China are likely to split, and that the” mutual “approach to the American customs tariff means that revenge by the commercial partners is likely to do a higher American tariff.”

In addition, some imports that have not been targeted last week may be subject to future investigations and may lose their exemptions, noting that the Trump administration has a “high degree of condemnation” in the advantages of restrictions policies.

On Wednesday, Trump added a 34 % tax on China, which would raise the total rate to 54 % and hit the European Union with a duty of 20 %. China has already a 34 % tariff for its tariff, and the European Union said it was planning to respond as well.

UBS expects the effective tariff for the United States to reach its peak in a range of 25 % -30 %. According to data from Fitch classifications25 % effective tariffs will be the highest since 1909.

And if it reaches 30 %, it will be the highest since 1872 – when the Civil War champion Olyles S. Grant was president and the American economy was still in the early stages of the industrial revolution.

But by the third quarter, UBS believes that a tariff goes down and expects the actual rate 2025 by 10 % -15 %.

Analysts said: “The various individual countries have suggested that they do not intend to take revenge and deal with individual countries can start to reduce the actual tariff rate in general.”

In fact, Vietnam confirmed during the weekend that it had offered the removal of all definitions on American imports, and Trump administration officials said on Sunday that more than 50 countries had contacted the White House of customs tariff talks.

Trump will also face more pressure to negotiate, as UBS predicted, pointing to the potential challenges on the legal basis for definitions and intense commercial pressure on policies or exceptions.

As the election season approaches in the middle of the period, the political accounts may reduce Trump’s position. Republican Senator Ted Cruz warned of the political “Blood” in 2026 if the definitions caused a recession.

UBS sees the United States GDP expansion at less than 1 % in 2025, including the stagnation within the year in which the gross domestic product will decrease by 1 % of the peak to the sink. The stocks will extend, but analysts cut their goal at the end of the year to 5,800 of 6400.

UBS said: “We believe that some” slopes “that can be possible acceptable and that can enable all parties to declare victory can include a mixture of higher defensive spending, or measures in Asia to prevent excess supply in global markets, discounts in current or non -fire definitions, or measures to increase internal investment in the United States.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com