The Australian dollar decreases due to the market warning before the United States NFP
- It weakens the Australian dollar, as the US dollar remains firm before issuing the non -cultivated salary statements on Friday.
- AUD may find support after Trump gave Mexican and Canadian goods under USMCA from its proposed tariff by 25 %.
- NFP is expected to increase in the United States to 160,000 in February, even from a linning reading of 143 km.
The Australian dollar (AUD) remains defeated against the US dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Friday. The AUD/USD pair faces modest winds, as the USD team advances before the upcoming NFP salaries in the North American session.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) maintains its view of economic growth in slowing 2 % by 2025. While its position has previously strengthened the AUD power, investors remain careful about the potential transformations of the policy in response to the dynamics of the inflation market and the labor market.
AUD can find support from fears that relieve US President Donald Trump changed his position on customs tariff again. Trump exempt the Mexican and Canadian goods covered by USMCA from its proposed tariff by 25 %.
The Australian dollar has struggled despite the strongest Australian GDP data from Australia, amid uncertainty in commercial policy and broader economic concerns. In the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP in Australia grew by 0.6 % quarter of a quarter, exceeding 0.3 % expansion of Q3 and market expectations by 0.5 %. On an annual basis, GDP increased to 1.3 % in the fourth quarter of 0.8 % in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain a danger on the downside. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman warned late on Wednesday that China is ready to participate in “any kind” of war in response to the escalating commercial tariffs of Trump, according to BBC. Given the situation of China as the largest commercial partner in Australia, this development can affect the Australian dollar.
The Australian dollar is declining, as the US dollar is stable
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar for six main currencies, is trading around 104.10 at the time of writing this report. Greenback has faced downward pressure amid concerns about slowing US economic momentum.
- Traders are now seen closely watching the US salary report in the United States on Friday (NFP), which is expected to show a modest recovery in job growth. Expectations indicate that net additions to jobs will rise to 160,000 in February, even from 143,000 January.
- The demands of the unemployed for the American initial work for the week ended on March 1 to 221 thousand, compared to 242 thousand in the previous week, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This number came in the market consensus of 235 kilos. The ADP employment change for February was only 77,000 new jobs, as it significantly decreased from 140K expectations and much less than the number 186 thousand January.
- The head of the Federal Reserve at Atlanta Rafael Bustic said late on Thursday that the American economy is in an incredible flow and is difficult to know the location of matters. Postek also later confirmed that the Federal Reserve is still committed to reducing inflation to 2 % while seeking to reduce disturbances to the labor market. He also highlighted that commercial feelings play a major role in his approaches to determine interest rates.
- The beige book in the field of Federal Reserve (Fed) in addition to March is important as concerns grow about the economic impact of President Trump’s commercial policies. Signs of stress appear in the American economy, even before the full implementation of its commercial measures.
- The Australian trade surplus increased to 5620 million in January, exceeding 5500 million expected and improving 4924 million precedents (revised from 5,085 million). Exports increased by 1.3 % in the month of the previous month, reaching an increase of 11 months driven by non -cash gold. Meanwhile, imports decreased by 0.3 % mom, after a 5.9 % sharp increase in the previous month, according to the Australian Statistical Office.
- Building permits in Australia increased by 6.3 % over a month in January, which accelerated significantly from the revised 1.7 % growth in December. This represents the second consecutive month of expansion and the fastest pace since last July.
- The Judo Bank (PMI) has decreased to 50.6 in February 51.1 in January, representing the fifth consecutive month of growth in commercial activity, albeit at a slower pace. PMI has decreased services to 50.8 out of 51.2, reflecting the continuous expansion of the thirteenth month in a row, although a moderate rate.
- The Vice President of the Reserve Bank in Australia (RBA), Andrew Hauser, highlighted that the uncertainty in global trade is 50 years of height. Hauser warned that the uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariff can push companies and families to delay planning and investment, and may burden economic growth.
- China cleared 3.8 trillion yuan ($ 530 billion) in bad assets in 2024, with officials increased efforts to address financial risks, according to the country’s financial regulations. Looking at 2025, organizers make the housing market a top priority, indicating the ongoing efforts to stabilize the economy and rebuild confidence in the struggling real estate sector.
The Australian dollar is testing the boundaries of an upward channel near 0.6300
AUD/USD is trading near 0.6320 on Friday, with the technical analysis of the daily scheme that shows that the husband is confined to the mode of a newly formed upscale channel, indicating the existence of an upper bias. The 24 -day relative index (RSI) remains higher than 50, which supports upscale expectations.
On the upper side, the first resistance appears at a three -month altitude of 0.6408, registered on February 21, followed by the upper limits of the channel, ascending at 0.6440.
The immediate support for AUD/USD is on the 50 -day SIA moving average (EMA) of 0.6309, which is in line with the lower boundaries of the emerging canal. An additional support in EMA is seen for nine days from 0.6299. The decreases less than this main support area can lead to more declines, which may re -test the lowest level in four weeks at 0.6187, registered on March 5.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Canadian dollar.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 0.01 % | -01 % | 0.13 % | -05 % | 0.17 % | 0.03 % | -08 % | |
| euro | -01 % | -0.03 % | 0.13 % | -06 % | 0.16 % | 0.02 % | -08 % | |
| GBP | 0.01 % | 0.03 % | 0.17 % | -0.03 % | 0.18 % | 0.04 % | -0.03 % | |
| JPY | -0.13 % | -0.13 % | -0.17 % | -0.19 % | 0.03 % | -0.12 % | -18 % | |
| CAD | 0.05 % | 0.06 % | 0.03 % | 0.19 % | 0.21 % | 0.08 % | 0.00 % | |
| Aud | -0.17 % | -16 % | -18 % | -0.03 % | -0.21 % | -0.14 % | -0.20 % | |
| Nzd | -0.03 % | -02 % | -04 % | 0.12 % | -08 % | 0.14 % | -07 % | |
| Chf | 0.08 % | 0.08 % | 0.03 % | 0.18 % | -01 % | 0.20 % | 0.07 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
