- The weakest Australian dollar, as Trump reaffirmed his plan to impose an additional 10 % tariff on Chinese imports.
- President Trump presented a new tariff on Chinese goods on February 4, raising a total tax to 20 %.
- The GDP of the United States has grown by 2.3 % in the fourth quarter of 2024, identical to the market expectations.
The Australian dollar (AUD) remains defeated for the sixth consecutive day on Friday. The AUD/USD pair extends his losing plan after US President Donald Trump repeated on Thursday a 25 % proposed tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods that will take place on March 4, along with an additional 10 % duty on Chinese imports because fatal drugs are still flowing to the United States of those countries.
President Trump added a new tariff on Chinese goods that will add to the 10 % definitions imposed on February 4, in response to the opium Ventiana, which leads to a 20 % cumulative tariff. Any signs of renewing the threats of American tariffs can withdraw China Oii because China is a major commercial partner in Australia.
AUD faced the challenges facing the disappointing Australian capitalist spending data that was released on Thursday, which unexpectedly contracted 0.2 % on a quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, missing 0.8 % of market expectations. This follows a 1.6 % revised expansion in the previous quarter.
Australian Deputy Governor of the Australian Reserve Andrew Hoser said on Thursday that he expects more positive news about inflation, but stressed the importance of seeing this progress first. He pointed out that the narrow labor market in Australia is still a challenge to control inflation.
The Australian dollar decreases due to the mood of the risk
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar for six main currencies, has gained ground after the GDP (Q4). DXY rises above 107.00 at the time of writing this report.
- The annual GDP of the United States has been expanded by 2.3 % in the fourth quarter of 2024. This number matchs the initial estimate and corresponds to the market expectations.
- Rafael Postic, head of the Federal Reserve in Atlanta, said late on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve should carry interest rates where, at a level that continues to pressure inflation, for each Bloomberg.
- US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lottenic late on Wednesday said that April 3 is the baseline of mutual tariff data. Lootnick also stated that Chinese vehicles in the United States would not allow, referring to China as his main concern.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Beesen expressed his commitment to work with Congress to make President Trump’s tax cuts permanently.
- The White House said late on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump issued an executive order aimed at implementing the cost of the Ministry of Government’s cost drive (DOGE), for every Reuters. The executive order requires the justification of spending, limiting travel and determining the excess of federal real estate that can be sold.
- President Trump signed a memorandum on Friday to direct the Foreign Investment Committee in the United States (CFIUS) to reduce Chinese investments in the strategic sectors. Reuters cited a White House official, saying that the National Security Memorandum is seeking to encourage foreign investment while protecting US national security interests from possible threats represented by foreign opponents such as China.
- The Chinese People’s People’s Bank (PBOC) is 300 billion yuan on Tuesday via a one -year -old lending facility (MNF), while maintaining the rate by 2 %. In addition, PBOC CNY318.5 billion by a seven -day reverse days by 1.50 %, in line with the previous rate.
- According to the Wall Street Journal report on the Future of the Australian dollar from the Australian Bank of the Australian Bank (CBA), Trump’s increasing trade war risks have become a great concern. China’s response to these commercial threats will be a major factor in forming the future performance of AUD.
- On Thursday, Le Li, Vice President of the Popular Bank of China (PBOC), suggested that the bank take an active role in supporting donation efforts, including the issuance of private treasury bonds, to help the state -owned major banks to strengthen the joint capital of shares 1 (CET1). Note that any change in the Chinese economy can affect AUD because China and Australia are close commercial partners.
- The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) has reduced the official money price (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10 % last week – the first interest in four years. The Australian Governor of the Australian Reserve (RBA) acknowledged the influence of high interest rates, but he warned that it was too early to declare victory over inflation. The labor market force also confirmed that the price cuts in the future are not guaranteed, despite the market expectations.
The Australian dollar tests 0.6200
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6220 on Friday. Daily graph analysis indicates that the husband remains less than that of nine and 14 days (EMAS), indicating the weakening of price momentum in the short term. Moreover, the 24 -day relative index (RSI) is still less than 50 years, which enhances the prevailing downward view.
The AUD/USD pair tests immediate support at the psychological level of 0.6200. A break below this threshold can push the husband towards the 0.6087 area, its lowest level since April 2020, registered on February 3.
On the upper side, the AUD/USD pair may face immediate resistance in EMA for nine days from 0.6297, followed by EMA for 14 days at 0.6302. A decisive break above these levels may boost the short -term price momentum, which paves the way for the husband to challenge the height for two months at 0.6408, reached on February 21.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Japanese yen.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 0.12 % | 0.09 % | -18 % | -0.03 % | 0.13 % | 0.27 % | -04 % | |
| euro | -0.12 % | -0.03 % | -0.31 % | -0.15 % | 0.00 % | 0.15 % | -0.17 % | |
| GBP | -0.09 % | 0.03 % | -0.28 % | -0.12 % | 0.03 % | 0.18 % | -0.14 % | |
| JPY | 0.18 % | 0.31 % | 0.28 % | 0.17 % | 0.30 % | 0.44 % | 0.14 % | |
| CAD | 0.03 % | 0.15 % | 0.12 % | -0.17 % | 0.14 % | 0.30 % | -02 % | |
| Aud | -0.13 % | -0.00 % | -0.03 % | -0.30 % | -0.14 % | 0.15 % | -0.15 % | |
| Nzd | -0.27 % | -0.15 % | -18 % | -0.44 % | -0.30 % | -0.15 % | -0.31 % | |
| Chf | 0.04 % | 0.17 % | 0.14 % | -0.14 % | 0.02 % | 0.15 % | 0.31 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
