In recent weeks, the Bitcoin prices have maintained a slow movement, as the cryptocurrency is now hovering near the $ 97,000 brand. Despite a 3 % decrease in the past two weeks, Bitcoin remains within a standardization phase after its rise in January above 109,000 dollars.
As the assets continue in this range, discussions about the continuous half -sequence and their potential impact on future price movements have gained momentum. One of the notable perspectives comes from the Cryptoquant Oinonen analyst, who recently shared visions in the current Bitcoin status for the past half sessions.
Institutional activity and market signals
In a joint analysis OINONEN, titled “Compensation of the Past performance”, noted that the price of Bitcoin has increased only 63 % since the last half in April 2024. This contradicts sharply with a rise of 686 % in the half-2020-2021 cycle.
While the model of power law and the principle of declining returns indicates more defeated gains over time, the relatively modest estimate since the last half indicates that the current session may remain in progress, and has left room for more upward trend.
Oinonen also highlighted the role of institutional players in forming Bitcoin price expectations. It is worth noting that the former Microstrategy is still involved in the influential market. In early 2025, the company increased Bitcoin’s possessions by 7,633 BTC, up to nearly 478,740 units.
According to Oinonen, the continuous acquisition of the strategy is a major indication of institutional demand. Historically, these purchases were in support of the session, indicating that continuous accumulation could indicate a positive path for the price of bitcoin. On the contrary, the slowdown in institutional purchase can reflect the morale of the weakest market.
Long -term outlook in the incomplete half -cycle
In the future, Oinonen expects a mixed market environment. Short -term challenges, such as the effect of “sales in May” and a stagnant summer, may give the way to a stronger performance in the fourth quarter.
The analyst reveals that this seasonal style has ended over and over again in previous years, often leading to high price levels by the end of the year. However, the possibility of a more important correction – clarifying several months or even a year – on the table, especially if the macroeconomic events, such as geopolitical decisions, transform the market dynamics.
In general, the current half cycle, through Oinonen’s analysis, appears incomplete. Moderate gains since April 2024 reflect a market that has not fully benefited from the low rate of release.
As such, the idea that Bitcoin’s Bull Run may still have legs backed by historical trends and the presence of institutional players such as the strategy. The interaction between the decrease in supply and the continuous demand paves the stage of the potential upward movements, even as fluctuations continue in the short term.
A distinctive image created with Dall-E, the tradingView chart
