Data scientist Alex McCulo recently shared ideas in the report of the sand dunes dunger that reveals that Polymark is predicting global events with a resolution of up to 94 %.
Polymarket International events predictions It is 94 % minute
McCullough analysis included a study of the historical data of Polymarkket and the removal of markets with possibilities exceeding 90 % or less than 10 % after the results were known but not yet settled, which guarantees more reliable results, as shown in the summary of the sand dunes.
for him research It has shown that polymarket tends to exaggerate the charity of events slightly across various domains, probably due to factors such as shine bias, herd mentality, low liquidity, and the tendency of participants to prefer highly dangerous bets.
McColeu noted that the long -term markets, those that have more events in the future, tend to be more accurate. This is because these markets often include events with unclear results, which makes their prediction easier.
In an interview with The Polymark’s The Oracle Blog, McCullough gave an example of Gavin Newsom that is likely to be president during the last elections, a market of $ 54 million. He explained that such long -term markets often have predictive results (such as newss does not win), which helps to increase the total accuracy of the platform for these types of predictions.
On the other hand, sports markets, which have less extremist results, provide a clearer image of predictive accuracy. MCCOLLOgh found that with the development of these events, polymarket predictions are improved, as accuracy mutations have become noticeable at some points.
The Sports Sector in Polymarket is expanding quickly, with approximately $ 4.5 billion in major events such as the American Professional League, MLB, Champions League, and Premier League finals, according to Polymarket Analytics.
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