Bitcoin’s explosive batch to a new peak has pushed over the day above 111,800 dollars on May 22 in the background of “Beverages with Rayol” in Raul Pal. Live broadcast. The macro -strategic expert in the previous hedge game and co -founder of Real Vision insists that the assembly is still in its early roles. “Banana area started. Yes, Bitcoin reached the highest level ever.
It defines the “banana zone” as the stage in which liquidity forces investors to the risk curve. He said that this liquidity does not come from inflation, but from the political interventions waving on the horizon in the bond market.
Why this bitcoin cycle is different
With the return of the United States for 10 years over 4.4 %, Pal said this step reflects the side scarcity, not excessive prices: “Bond bond returns are rising. This is usually a good thing … but inflation decreases all the time. The story is liquidity.
He expected the Federal Reserve to either protect the percentage of complementary leverage (SLR) to allow the basic traders to absorb the treasury or “dress” a form of control over the return curve: “By July, they will use SLR to allow banks to keep more bonds. This is a symbol of,” hey, on your public bonds, gives some crane in the world, F- If this is not enough, they will slap an exclusive four-letters to control the return curve and pretend to be something new. “
He said that such measures “remove the risks of the left tail” and the rare assets of the turbocharged. “This is exactly what happened in 2017. The arrows and gold, especially bitcoin, went to the moon.”
Palm for several minutes on the comparative dollar plan: “Trump I [term] I saw the dollar falling severely. guess what? It is a faster restarting now … the weak dollar is a key to making the world rotate. The gain reached 12 months in Bitcoin after a large decrease in the dollar by 119 %, 175 %, to 592 %. This is the effect of the maqam. “
He rejected the concerns of the introductory war as a noise: “It is just negotiation. They will agree to something reasonable because the United States is working to sell bonds, not the bombing of trade.”
While celebrating the creation of Bitcoin teacher, Pal argued that ETHEREUM and Thight-Beta Layer-1S excel as soon as the ISM manufacturing index exceeds at the present time to less than 50 years: “The financial conditions index screams higher and leads to ISM.
Solana, SUI, DOGECOIN and $ 140,000 per BTC
He referred to the Solana and Sui plans “to form a cup and a classic cup”, then offered by the cheek on Dogecoin: “The best results are eventually outperform the performance of bitcoin from the beginning and become the most difficult currency in the world.
Despite the abundance, Pal made a timing timing linked to its global model M2: “Liquidity says that we must be more than $ 140,000 by July. But in July-August can be a side correction stage 2” as the reflected interferences of the dollar. This is the place where lifestyle foil from the table-if you want. Nothing about changing the course. “
He reiterated that the full banana area extends to 2026, with the exception of the unexpected policy shock: “Every session shouting” decreased returns. “Each session are wrong.”
The PAL thesis is summarized into three intertwined powers: policy -based liquidity, sorting weaker in terms of structurally, and sorting markets that put the capital to rare assets. Whether or not traders accept the “banana area” sign, the markets show alignment. “I have been telling the same story since the lowest level of 2022 – and fortunately it was true.” “You can ignore wine recommendations, but do not ignore liquidity plans.”
For investors, the message is clear: if the bond market imposes the hand of the federal reserve, and a lower bitcoin -resistant path – and perhaps, perhaps, for the ether and its brothers – to the top.
At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 110,642.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
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