The Federal Reserve Minutes can reveal the effect of the day of Trump’s liberation on the last FOMC meeting

The last FOMC meeting will be provided today. They will clarify the extent of the Federal Reserve’s concern about the risks of recession and the extent of its influence on the so -called “Editing Day”.

In them interview On March 18-19, policy makers from the US Central Bank admitted that expectations had changed. Initially, they were optimistic about the slowdown of inflation and steady growth until they were often inaccurate and concern that the new US import taxes would raise inflation even with slowing demand and growth and perhaps even employment.

FOMC minutes will drop tomorrow at 2 pm East time.

We will take a deeper look at the Federal Reserve’s thinking from the last meeting – and perhaps some clues about the discounts in the coming prices.

The fluctuation is almost guaranteed.

Smart money will closely monitor.

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However, this comment was based on Trump’s first commercial ads and other things he had made since January 20, when he returned to the White House. At that meeting, the updated estimates of politics showed that officials already expect growth to be a little slower and that inflation is slightly higher than expected.

However, they are still planning to reduce interest rates by half a percentage by the end of 2025.

What image will FOMC FOMC draw on the recession?

Two weeks after the meeting, Trump announced a new tariff for dozens of countries that were much more harsh than anyone believed. These definitions raised average average goods From other countries from about 2.5 % to 25 % or more. This caused a significant decrease in the value of shares around the world.

To this end, the minutes may not show how worried politics as they have since April 2.

However, it usually includes important information about the predictions of the various employees and scenarios that are considered. Moreover, they can explain how people feel about different parts of the economic future.

Analysts from the advisory company of former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Mayer said the last meeting has a mark on a starting point in which Trump’s repairs could be built.

Federal reserve expectations are balanced between recession and stagnation

In March, the unemployment rate was 4.2 %, which is slightly higher than the previous month. However, companies have added more than 200,000 jobs, which often caused the unemployment rate to rise.

the Federalism The main scale of inflation, the personal consumption expenses index, increased by 2.5 % during the past year in February. This was only 0.5 percentage points above the central bank’s goal.

However, inflation has not changed much since September, and definitions are now just around the corner. Reports on demand faster on foreign cars, wine and other goods on which taxes will be imposed have begun to feel their effects on the economy.

Now, the Federal Reserve will have to work hard to withdraw the wide macroeconomic signal from time to be noisy. Some important prices, such as gas, may decrease due to low demand, while other prices, such as many imports, may increase due to taxes. Moreover, the collapse of the stock market may harm people’s spending over time.

After that, they said, monetary policy may change very slowly, then all once until it becomes clear whether the definitions and other changes made by Trump will lead to high prices, slow growth, or a mixture of the two. This is what the Federal Reserve Chairman says: Everything depends on the decisions made by Trump.

Samuel Thompses, the chief American economist in the macroeconomic economy, wrote on Tuesday that the drop in oil and gas prices and the decrease in shipping costs by 30 % since February will lead to the abolition of about a quarter of the impact achieved by the definitions on family income after taxes.

However, the decrease in stock prices has caused US families to lose 5.5 trillion dollars in the market value since the end of last year. This can lead to a decrease in spending up to $ 140 billion.

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