- Discover the main basic factors that affect Usinr and how Indian NiIP affects the rupee against other Asian currencies
The rupee is likely to fall behind in a more soft environment in dollars, as well as due to the net net international investment (NIIP), which indicates an imbalance between what the country owes and owns abroad.
NIIP is the gap between what the country owns abroad and what it owes for the rest of the world. According to the Indian NIIP, as of December 2024, he had a negative NIIP. Because of about 350 billion dollars to the world more than you have in foreign assets. Compared to other Asian countries, they carry positive NIIP, which means that their ownership of foreign assets exceeds their external obligations.
In a more soft environment in dollars, the value of these assets tends to decrease. Therefore, investing investors by selling dollars and buying their currencies, which tend to strengthen local units.
NIIP in India indicates that the rupee may be behind the rest of Asia. On the other hand, the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were martyred with hedging demand, which is one of the factors that contribute to the decline in the dollar.
All eyes are in the US -Chinese talks. Transfer the first day of conversations a little bit of hope. “The meeting has followed well,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Beesen, such as:
Trade Minister Howard Lunity described the discussions as “fruitful”, while Donald Trump said that “China is not easy”, but it expressed his satisfaction with his negotiations that they are leading by saying “good performance” and “providing good reports”
The most likely outcome of these talks is an improvement in the trade situation of the United States compared to the pre -TORP 2 period. Until they reach a deal, this will affect all markets, and investors will remain reluctant and cautious during trading.
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On the geopolitical side, nearly three weeks after the end of the Pakistani war, New Delhi warned that the root causes of the conflict are still changing and India is ready anywhere in Pakistan if any terrorist attacks occur. Some feeling of uncertainty spreads in the market. All of these factors mainly affect the US dollar/INR dollar pricing.
Technical expectations of the US dollar/INR:
USD/Inr accumulates, up to 85.55 in the Asian session. The husband fights, indicating any specific direction for the near direction. From the technical perspective, the US dollar/INR is now trading above the support level at 85.30, which is June 3. The negative side break below may expose the pair to reach a level less than 84.90.
For the landfill, any outbreak above the resistance level at 85.80 can support the husband to reach the highest level on May 22 at 86.10.
USD/Inr price expectations before RBI decision
