Where did the retail sale in Bitcoin go? Look abroad

Main meals:

• Onchain standards indicate that retailers are asleep, but AUM “AUM” is growing

• Retail investors maintain an immediately or indirect Bitcoin ETF shares – either directly or indirectly through investment consultants and hedge funds working on their behalf.

• The direct demand for the investor in the field of retail may be asleep but not dead, especially outside the United States, as the self -body is still necessary.

There is a widespread assumption that Bitcoin (BTC) cannot move higher because the retail request is dries. Onchain data appears to support this narration: a small wallet activity at the lowest level in several years. But is this really the full picture?

Perhaps the retail is still here, and not only where we are used to looking. This course, which is a large part of the demand for retail, may flow through the Trafi bars: in circulating investment funds, pension funds and mediation accounts. If the circulating investment funds are calculated as retail, it may change how to understand the Bitcoin market.

Who buys Spot Bitcoin Etfs?

Since the launch of Spot Bitcoin Etfs in the United States in January 2024, Bitcoin has entered the governor of clients who may not keep it directly, due to the lack of technical confidence or the lack of desire to manage self -needs.

Institutions are also buying investment funds for their organizational clarity and ease of accountability. Among them, investment consultants and hedge funds are the largest ETF holders, as they run Bitcoin’s display on behalf of both retailers and companies. Banks, insurance companies and pension funds also enter, not only carry BTC but also offer exposure to their customers.

Group, ETF shareholders now have about $ 135 billion in Bitcoin.

According to Bloomberg analyst Erik BalunasInvestment consultants represent approximately half the amount of $ 21 billion of assets reported through 13F files – an increasing sub -group of ETF exposure, which now represents about 20 % of all ETF holdings. Hedge funds are affiliated with $ 6.9 billion in ETF shares (about 83,934 BTC), followed by brokerage companies and holding companies.

Cash a report Color: Goldman Sachs performs between financial advisers with an investment of $ 1.8 billion, while Millennium Management tops the hedge funds at $ 1.6 billion.

Investment funds circulating in the field of retail as well, in some way

It is tempting to classify ETF flows as a purely institutional, unlike the familiar image of the small retail portfolio that accumulates Sats. From that lens, yes – the demand for retail has disappeared.

Andre Dragush, head of BitWise Research, told Cointelegraph,

“The retail sale was the main distributor of Bitcoin in 2025 until now, based on our accounts. At the same time, both public companies as well as money and ETPS were the largest source of demand for Bitcoin in 2025.”

However, Dragosch added this

“Certainly, retail sharing is widely expressed via ETPS/ETFS because these investment vehicles still dominate retail. This is evident in the latest 13F files in the United States that still indicates that the percentage of retail investors in the United States Bitcoin is close to 75 %.”

Therefore, if the end of the BTC ETF sharing is a retail customer, it may be time to reconsider how to interpret the Onchain data. This may be the new reality of the Bitcoin Market: The new demand for retail is preferred to keep Bitcoin in the mediation account, not a self -portfolio. While this approach contradicts the original bitcoin ethics, this approach appeals to many who believe in its investment thesis.

Explosive success in Spot ETFS is evidence of retail being interested, even if onchain is not recorded. ISHares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from Blackrock has already made more revenue than S&P 500 ETF (IVV), according to BloombergSpecialized phenomenon.

Related to: Why can Bitcoin not break $ 112,000 at all? Explanation of btc analyzes

Why can Bitcoin not reach higher levels?

However, even with the demand for ETF, the price of bitcoin remains under pressure.

As Cryptoquant graph In January 2025, it explains that the clear demand for Bitcoin reached a peak of about $ 1.6 million, doubling ETF flows and the strategy combined. Today, with fixed ETF flows, this number turned into negative lands, and decreased to $ 857,000.

In other words, the current flows – even with the circulating investment funds – are not enough to compensate for the ongoing external flows. The market may need a great incentive, such as interest rate discounts, to prove the demand. Such a trigger will mainly benefit from institutions and customers, who are now playing an increasingly central role in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Alexander Stachinko, director of the strategy in a French encrypted Paymium, recognizes this transformation:

“In the end, retail sale will have to pass through Trafi bars, it is my conviction for a long time.”

However, he explains that this does not mean that the direct demand for retail will disappear. While the richer American investors may choose to be exposed via Blackrock and peer, it is possible that participants in places such as Nigeria or Argentina will continue to buy BTC directly.

So perhaps the direct demand for retail – went completely quiet. In appropriate circumstances, it can still return.

This article is intended for general information purposes and does not aim to be and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The opinions, ideas and opinions expressed here are alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.