- USD/MXN is declining as American trade policies overcome economic data.
- Insecurity is outperforming in Mexico, but Pancico is still expected to reduce prices on March 27.
- USMCA exemptions are secured for four weeks, but the tariff on steel and aluminum is still in place.
- The US dollar weakens despite the solid NFP. Market markets at 80 basis points of Federal Reserve Discounts in 2025.
The Mexican Bizo (MXN) records modest gains against the US dollar (USD) and is still unable to reach a new weekly height, as it seems that the strange husband has found floor near 20.22. The report of the hot inflation in Mexico and salary salaries in the United States (NFP) continued to be overwhelmed by US President Donald Trump’s policies. USD/MXN is traded at 20.26, a decrease of 0.17 %.
Recently, breaking news from Mexico revealed that Finance Minister Rojilio Ramirez de la or step down, According to Reuters sources.
Infection in Mexico exceeded the predictions in the title and basic numbers in February. However, it will not compensate for another price by Mexico (Pancico) at the March 27 meeting.
Meanwhile, economic data takes the back seat for American commercial policies. Although Mexico achieved one -month exemption for products related to the USMCA imported to the United States, duties on steel and aluminum remain. Therefore, the bzo can be pressed because it is one of the four largest exporters in the United States. Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Eftrar said he would meet US trade officials to discuss the matter.
In February, non -agricultural salary statements in the United States improved compared to January data, but they were absent from the mark. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10 %, however it was often aligned with estimates.
American job data did little to increase Greenback, which fell more than 3.56 % per week, according to the US dollar index (DXY). The data does not indicate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs to reduce prices at the next meeting.
It seems that the market participants are confident that the Federal Reserve (FER) will reduce interest rates in 2025. At the time of this report, the money contract in December 2025 was the prices in 80 basis points of mitigation.
Before that in the calendar, US dollar traders/MXN will look at the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the University of Chicago at 17:30 GMT.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Peso Mexican compressed by the American commercial discourse
- The main inflation in Mexico increased by 0.28 % in February, above 0.27 % estimates and a decrease from the previous 0.29 %. For 12 months, increased by 3.77 % as expected, up from 3.59 %.
- My mom increased basic inflation by 0.48 % of 0.46 % expected by analysts and from 0.41 % in January. Annually, increased by 3.65 %, with expectations by 3.62 %, a decrease from 3.66 % last month.
- Panco -Mixico’s Economists (Pancico) has shown that the main inflation is expected to end with 3.71 %, while Core CPI is expected to end with 3.75 %. The USD/MXN exchange rate is expected to end at 20.85 in 2025, which is slightly lower than dropping 20.90 in the previous poll. However, for the year 2026, they expect a significant decrease in the bizo, which exceeds the level of 21.30 expected in the January poll.
- The numbers of salary statements in the United States in February were 151 km, from 125 thousand January, but lost estimates of 160,000. The unemployment rate of up to 4.1 % has been marked, 4 % higher.
- A Reuters opinion poll showed that 70 out of 74 economists say that the risk of stagnation has risen in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
- The governor of the Federal Reserve, Adriana Kogler, said that monetary policy may remain fixed for some time, adding that the risk of inflation tends to the upward trend. She added that the labor market has been re -balanced and that wages are not a major engine of inflation.
- Commercial conflicts between the United States and Mexico remain in the forefront and the center. If the two countries are able to reach an agreement, they may pave the way for the recovery of the Mexican currency. Otherwise, more USD/MXN is seen because American definitions can lead to stagnation in Mexico.
USD/MXN Expectations: Mexican Bizo, where USD/MXN remains flat near 20.30
USD/MXN was unified, after a simple moving average for 100 days (SMA) at 20.33, in a range of 20.20-20.30. The price procedure indicates that not buyers or sellers are responsible, and it seems that the husband may remain among the familiar levels amid a catalyst.
If USD/MXN has wiped SMA for 100 days, the following resistance will be 20.50. If it is exceeded, the following main resistance levels are the peak of March 4 at 20.99 and the peak (YTD), which is 21.28 years old.
Otherwise, Figure 20.00, would display SMA for 200 days in 19.54.
Pancico is common questions
Mexico Bank, also known as Pancico, is the central bank in the country. Its mission is to maintain the value of Mexico, Mexican Peso (MXN), and control of monetary policy. To this end, its main goal is to maintain low and stable inflation within the target levels – at or close to its 3 % goal, the center point in the tolerance range ranges between 2 % and 4 %.
The main tool for banknotes for monetary policy guidance is to determine interest rates. When inflation is higher than the target, the bank will try to tame it by raising prices, which makes it more expensive for families and companies to borrow money and thus cool the economy. The highest interest rates are generally positive for Mexican Peso (MXN) because it leads to higher returns, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, low interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The difference in the average with the US dollar, or how Banxico is expected to determine interest rates compared to the Federal Federal Reserve (Fed), which is a major factor.
Pancico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly affected by the US Federal Reserve decisions (Fed). Therefore, the Central Bank Resolution Committee usually gathered a week after the Federal Reserve. When doing this, Pancico interacts and sometimes expects monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before raising the federal reserve rate, Pancico was first trying to reduce the chances of a significant decrease in the Mexican Bzo (MXN) and to prevent capital flows that could shake the country.
