- Mexican Peso is estimated at 0.58 %, as the US dollar/MXN decreased below 20.00 on the sour risk tone, the weak US dollar.
- Powell indicates caution of inflation, negative risk notes and a solid labor market; The federal reserve witnessed fixed detention rates.
- GDP in China Q1, which enhances EM currencies; The chip exports strikes hit us with the technology sector and Nasdak.
- Sheinbauum American tomato tariffs say Mexico is still a major resource amid commercial tensions.
The Mexican Bezo is still estimated against the US dollar, where the appetite of the market remains sour, while the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that he is still focusing a little on inflation because the economy is close to the maximum employment. At the time of this report, the US dollar/MXN is traded in 19.96, a decrease of 0.58 %.
The market mood is disturbed with concerns about the definitions. The United States, which imposes restrictions on chips exports to China weighing the major conductors companies, sending a decrease in NASDAQ Technology. Nevertheless, the GDP numbers (GDP) that were reported in China in the first quarter of 2025 under the auspices of currencies on the emerging market (EM) like PESO.
Powell said policy in a good situation, adding that the economy is “strong” despite uncertainty and negative risks. He stated that growth has probably slowed in the first quarter of 2025, which generates the possibility of a recession scenario, after saying, “The two goals of the Federal Reserve Bank have not yet been nervous, but the motive is for high unemployment and high inflation.”
Meanwhile, the President of Mexico, Claudia Xinbom, continued to negotiate with its American counterpart to avoid the Trump tariff and said that the customs tariff by 20.91 % on tomatoes would not happen. “This operation has been performed several times, and Mexico has always won. But even if this punishment is applied, Mexican tomatoes in the United States will still be exported to the United States because there is no alternative; the main problem will be that the tomatoes will be more expensive in the United States.”
Through the northern border, US retail sales were better than expected, while American industrial production contracting more than expected.
In the introduction on the list, Mexico will include retail sales, inflation in the middle of the month for April, and economic activity for February until next week. In the United States, the initial fair housing data and demands will be revealed on Thursday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Mexican Peso offers in the midst of the absent economic list
- Retail sales in Mexico in January were 0.6 % mom and 2.7 % on an annual basis. If the data is less than these numbers, another indication will be that the economy is slowing down, as reported by the Panco de Mexico (Pancico) Victoria Rodriguez Siga.
- Before the Senate, Victoria Rodriguez Sega said the board of directors is still not satisfied with the inflation rate, which was 3.8 % on an annual basis in March, although it is far from the target of 3 %. She added that the process of inflation and economic slowdown is justifying the Bancico’s membranous approach, and hinted that the central bank may continue to reduce a policy.
- The difference in the difference in the interest rate between Mexico and the United States indicates that there is a larger direction in the USD/MXN exchange rate. This is because Pancico is expected to reduce rates by 50 basis points (BPS) at the May meeting, while the first step is expected to be the Federal Reserve in July.
- The price of the players in the money market was 91 basis points of mitigation by the end of the end at the end of 2025. This pieces are expected to be the first in July.
- The United States’ retail sales increased by 1.4 % in March, overcoming 1.3 % expectations and was sharply higher than 0.2 % in February, driven by powerful car sales. However, the control group, which feeds in gross domestic product accounts, increased by only 0.4 %, a decrease from 1.3 % in February and less than 0.6 % forecast.
- The Federal Reserve revealed that American industrial production decreased by 0.3 % after an increase of 0.8 % in February.
USD/MXN Expectations: Mexican Peso acquires the ground with a USD/MXN decrease less than 20.00
The USD/MXN is intact, although the husband is drifting below 20.00. The sellers seem to be ready to test the SMA for 200 days in 19.86, but they will need to clarify this in the case of closing daily, so that they can remain in the hope of challenge No. 19.50. In this result, the next support will be 19.00.
On the contrary, if buyers pay the USD/MXN exchange rate over 20.00, this door may open to test the highest level on April 14, 20.29, which will open the door to SMA meeting for 50 days and 100 days near 20.30-20.36, followed by a resistance of 20.50. The disinfection of these levels can re -test the peak of April 9 at 21.07.
Common questions between Mexican Peso
The Mexican Bezo (MXN) is the most circulating currency among its peers in Latin America. Its value is widely determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of transfers sent by Mexicans who live abroad, especially in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the proximity process – or the decision of some companies to transfer manufacturing capabilities and supply supply chains near their countries of origin – is a motivation for the Mexican currency as the country is a main manufacturing center in the American continent. Another MXN catalyst is oil prices because Mexico is a major source of commodity.
The main goal of the central bank in Mexico, also known as Pancico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (in or near its 3 % target, the center point in the range of tolerance between 2 % and 4 %). To this end, the bank determines an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is very high, BancicPico will try to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for families and companies to borrow money, thus cooling demand and macroeconomic economy. The highest interest rates are generally positive for Mexican Peso (MXN) because it leads to higher returns, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, low interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
The total economy data is a key to assessing the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican PESO (MXN) evaluation. The strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, is a decrease in unemployment and high confidence, useful for MXN. It not only attracts more foreign investments, but may also encourage the Bank of Mexico to increase interest rates, especially if this force corresponds to high inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to decrease.
As a currency of the emerging market, the Mexican Biso (MXN) tends to strive during risk periods, or when investors see the wider market risk low and thus yearn to communicate with investments that bear greater risks. On the contrary, MXN tends to be weak in times of turmoil in the market or economic uncertainty where investors tend to sell high -risk assets and flee to the most resigned safe havens.
