NPC has set 5 % growth targets, 2 % inflation, the official budget deficit 4 % of GDP, largely as we expected. We expect that the announced financial incentive will be compensated for the impact of the American definitions announced so far. We keep our growth expectations in 2025 by 4.5 %; Economists at Standy Harder note that the negative risks to alleviate through additional stimulation.
Motivation to be loaded, it can be strengthened if necessary
“The National Popular Congress meetings (NPC) began today; introducing Lee Qiang introductory priorities in China for the year 2025 in the government action report. Most of the declared numerical goals (Figure 1) were in line with our expectations. The tone of a supportive policy was preserved in line with the Central Economic Action Conference last December.”
“The fiscal policy remains the axis of the market. While the official financial deficit has been expanded to 4 % of the 2025 GDP, the share of government bonds (CNY 11.86TN) was slightly lower than expected. The motivation plan is not sufficient to compensate for the latest rise in the American customs tariff, and it is expected that the additional stimulus will be offered if the H1 growth momentum indicates important risks on the downside. “
“The government confirmed its support for family consumption and income. In addition, it pledged to install real estate and stock markets, while maintaining technology and green as priorities. On the external front, the government plans to continue” one way “, despite the security rise worldwide.”
