With the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) remained stable.
Take a look at the previous conflicts show a similar trend, with factors such as adoption and institutional participation that plays a major role.
Analysts such as André Dragosch, head of research at the ETP group for BitWise Etc, have argued that the price of Bitcoin can suffer in the days after the outbreak of the conflict. Although the volatility of the BTC price is generally on the declining direction, it is still seen as one of the risky assets and is likely to be sold quickly when the war explodes.
However, Mithil Thakore, co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin L2, said earlier, he told CointeleGraph, “In the long run, geopolitical conflicts arouse the risk of high world inflation rates due to factors such as increased financial spending, losing cash transport policy, supply-chain supply disorders, which must be It expands the prices, which must be useful in interest. “
Looking at the past events of geopolitical instability, Bitcoin has shown noticeable flexibility, but the lack of movement does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin is a hedge in times of uncertainty.
Below is a look at some cases where Bitcoin’s reaction was interacting, or not interacting, with the widespread armed conflict in the world:
Israel’s war, Iran (June 13, 2025)
On June 13, Israel struck dozens of targets in Iran in the largest attack on the country since the Iraqi war in the 1980s. The two countries, the strong competitors in the Middle East, continued strategic missile strikes against each other during the following days.
Despite concerns about the broader escalation, including Israel’s calls to involve the United States, the markets have largely ignored fears. Bitcoin is no exception.
While the assets saw a brief decrease as soon as the bombings started, the price was largely recovered. ZA encryption analyst He said“Bitcoin does not seem concerned about Israel and Iran’s conflict (so far).”
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Perhaps the Bitcoin Emeralds, Michael Sailor, may also be polite. On June 16, his company, strategy, acquired 10,001 BTC for a billion dollars. The purchase comes after Strd, Strd, at Nasdaq in Nasdak in Nasdak on June 11.
The bombing of the Israeli embassy Iran (April 1, 2024)
On April 1, 2024, Israel struck the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, killing many senior officials. In response, Iran seized the Israeli MSC series and launched a series of attacks on Israel on April 13.
After both date, the bitcoin price saw a short declining movement, as BTC lost more than 8 % after April 13 retaliation.
However, with the markets used to the new base, as well as Bitcoin, and continued to move up.
Israel War-Gaza (October 7, 2023)
On October 7, 2023, Hamas forces from Gaza hit targets inside Israel, killing more than 1,000 Israelis and raising a war and a humanitarian crisis that is still ongoing.
Israeli markets have witnessed immediate dramatic losses, while the major weapons manufacturers such as Lockheed Martin witnessed an increase in the stock price.
Bitcoin remained somewhat affected, and after 50 days of initial attacks, it was much higher from where it started.
In the wake of the attacks, reports that Hamas raised money in Crypto led to the renewal of calls from the organizers to organize the area tightly, with the American Treasury penalty on the Gaza -based encryption operator with alleged relations with the group.
The Blockchain Company said that there is no “guide” to support the collection claims in Hamas in Crypto.
Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2022)
In early 2022, eight years after the war in the Donbas region of Ukraine, Russia began a large -scale invasion while Moscow calls it a “special military operation”.
The global financial markets were immediately affected, as the economies closest to Ukraine were worse. In the face of this trend, the price of bitcoin rose up and rose 16 % after only five days of the invasion.
Exchanges inside Russia and Ukraine witnessed the circulation of encryption in the eye installments, as the persons who are abroad sought to distribute currency controls with the encrypted currency.
One week after the beginning of the war, Ukraine received more than $ 70 million of cryptocurrency donations, most of which are in Ether (ETH).
Bitcoin later rushed that year, but this was nourished by the collapse of the Terra Stablecoin and other market events, more than concerns about the war in Ukraine.
Bitcoin price and internal conflicts
While encryption may be risk assets during the conflict times in some parts of the world, price movements ignore internal conflicts outside those that affect traditional markets in Europe, the Middle East and North America.
In November 2020, the war erupted in the Tigray region of Ethiopia after years of tension between the Left Ethnic Liberation Front and federal governments in Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The war, which left hundreds of thousands of dead and millions of internally displaced people. Premium By the nearby Catholic Catholic Welfare Association as it is not. Report 2024 of Geography The name “The world forgot” war. ”
Bitcoin price did not notice much either. The main narration that dominates the encryption market after that was that unprecedented assets that were not paid largely paid through inflation fears of the Covid-19 epidemic, institutional adoption according to the mass (then the square) and the strategy (then Microstrategy).
Later that year, a few months after the outbreak of the Tigray War, on February 1, 2021, Tamado in Myanmar toppled the National Democracy League in a coup, which sparked a civil war, which is continuing.
A month later, the price of Bitcoin will reach its highest level at the present time, which is $ 69,000.
Bitcoin and “proximity” for conflict
One of the main factors in discussing Bitcoin’s reaction to the conflict is the degree in which Bitcoin – that is, is presented or connected to traditional markets.
Some economists have noticed the effect of the geographical proximity of the conflict. Financial markets in countries close to the conflict zone will witness more fluctuations and losses.
The adoption of encryption in general is the highest in developing countries, where India, Nigeria and Indonesia top the package, according to the 2024 global adoption index. This indicator includes ONSAIN encryption, retail value received by central services, and onchain Crypto and the retail value received by Defi protocols.
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In comparison, Bitcoin finds increasingly concentrated ownership among Western institutions and the governments of the world. As of December 2024, 1 % of Bitcoin was owned by ETFS alone, more than Satoshi Nakamoto.
The largest ETF holders are now like Blackrock, and regulatory encryption exchanges such as Kraken, Coinbase and even the United States government.
Bitcoin has recently enjoyed this degree of adoption, thus exposure to traditional financial markets and institutional investment.
In 2013, Bitcoin continued with what some consider its first big race. The year started with $ 13, as it crossed $ 100 by April and 200 dollars by October. The end of the year witnessed to close more than $ 1,000.
“Winter encryption” began next year, in addition to two armed struggles: the Donbas war, including the annexation of the Russian Crimea and the Gaza 2014 war.
During this time, Crypto was still in a specialized industry, and miners could use the graphics card on their computers to extract Bitcoin. Kraken and Coinbase only were only three and two, respectively.
Institutional participation was not present, and many considered “magic Internet funds” only suitable to accommodate the illegal activity online.
While the appearance of both conflicts affects the stock markets, both regional and far from that, there was no discussion in the encrypted media, such as its presence at that time, from the impact of wars on the price of bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s reaction to the war can change
Now, with the increase in institutional adoption, which is an American government suitable for encryption and international trade conferences for thousands, the Bitcoin price may be more affected by the negative contradiction that armed conflict over the markets.
Almost all conflicts occurred above, which witnessed bitcoin prices quickly, before institutional adoption on a large scale. This typical transformation has seen the narration about changing bitcoin from moving to assets on risk. BTC has more connection with the traditional financial markets than it was previously.
However, analysts are optimistic about bitcoin in the current climate. QCP said in a note on June 16 that the escalation can witness high oil prices, especially the “Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz”, with the possibility of disrupting participation in the United States.
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