Merchants in the KALSHI prediction market put the possibilities of American recession in 2025 by 61 %, following the overwhelming tariff matter signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.
KALSHI uses standard stagnation standards, a two -year -old -growth quarterly growth (GDP), as mentioned by the US Department of Commerce.
The possibilities of the American recession have doubled on the prediction platform since March 20 and reflect the current recession for the current year 2025 probability On Polymark, which currently owns traders on the platform by 60 %.
The overall economic expectations of 2025 have deteriorated quickly following up the tariff order of US President Donald Trump and the sale that followed in the capital markets, which raised fears of the long bear market.
The possibility of recession in the United States in 2025 is the highest 60 % in the prediction market like Shi. source: Like
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Trump’s executive order throws the markets in a state of chaos
The executive order of the US President created a 10 % primary tariff rate for all countries and various “mutual” tariff rates on commercial partners with the current customs tariff on the import of the United States.
Trump’s announcement of the sale of the immediate stock market, which led to the elimination of the value of shareholders more than $ 5 trillion within days.
Fears of stagnation continue to grow with market analysts warning of a long long trade war that negatively affects global markets and prevents risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, President Trump has expressed confidence that the definitions will strengthen the US economy in the long run and correct any commercial imbalances.
“Markets will flourish”, the president He said On April 3, the sale of the current market was described as an expected part of the process.
The sale of the stock market continues with the decrease in the value of shares in the value of the shareholders. source: Tradingvief
Asset Director Anthony Boxbrano recently speculated that President Trump intentionally shattered the markets to reduce interest rates.
PoxPyiano cited the reduction of US Treasury bonds for a period of 10 years as evidence that the president’s strategy is to force the recession to influence rates.
The interest rates on US Treasury bonds decreased for 10 years from about 4.66 % in January 2025 to only 4.00 % on April 5. President Trump also presses the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to reduce short -term interest rates.
“This will be the perfect time for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates,” Trump, Trump books On April 4, a social function of truth.
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