The Australian dollar has jumped at the heights since December based on the weakness of the dollar
- Australian edges are higher after the delay in mutual definitions.
- Contracting American retail sales, disappointing market forecasts.
- Federal Reserve Observers believe that 55 % opportunity rates are still in March.
- RBA reduction speculation remains amid domestic inflation.
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) strengthens the second consecutive day on Friday, with the support of US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the implementation of mutual definitions. At the same time, it relates to beyond a possible global trade war, especially if the additional tariff procedures are announced later. The market participants also threw the US dollar after weakening retail sales data from the United States.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Aussie Comp after American data
- President Trump has postponed a 25 % tariff on the chosen imports, as short -term optimism provided risky currencies such as the Australian dollar.
- The recent commercial frictions have eased the US dollar gains, as the currency places water amid the uncertain stance of Washington on the customs tariff.
- On Thursday, US retail sales data showed -0.9 % of my mother in January, loss of expectations that she expects -1 % and destroying fears of slowing the economy.
- Industrial production is offered by 0.5 % in January, a decrease from 1 % in December, with an estimate of 0.3 %, generating mixed signals on the health of the American economy.
- The weak retail sales numbers of traders can lead to reducing bets on the Federal Reserve, which maintains interest rates in a range of 4.25 % -4.50 % for a long time, although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted that policy changes on inflation that can Check it or weak the labor market.
- Despite the fixed Aussie tone, the speculation reduction in the price of the reserves in Australia 25 Basis is still high, noting the inflationary pressure and the defeated consumer expectations.
Aud/USD technical expectations: Keep momentum above a simple 20 -day average
The AUD/USD pair gained 0.65 % to reach 0.6355 on Friday, which extended his climbing over the simple 20 -day moving average (SMA). The RSI is located in 66 years, hovering near the peak area of the purchase but still rises sharply, indicating a strong buyer’s interest.
Meanwhile, the MACD softened rapprochement drawing prints green tapes, indicating the momentum of the effect.
With the couple reaching its highest levels since December, traders are still alert to the uncertainty that is waving on the horizon, including fresh tariff ads and American data surprises, which can quickly turn the market direction.
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, and the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and trade is a balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
