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Bitcoin’s path gained to $ 200,000 by December a new champion. Investments in digital asset research in the weekends were attracted to the new modeling of the “ElonMoney” series, on the pretext that a $ 200,000 print is not only reasonable, but is based on a statistical basis. “200 thousand dollars”, Capriole books On X, adding that the thread is “a great use of cabiri plans to perform a total bitcoin analysis.”
In the search, ElonMoney collects six long -horizontal indicators. “For this analysis, I used standards such as MVRV Z-SCORE, the oscillator of the energy value, the bitcoin heater, the kidney indicator, and other indicators, as well as historical data,” the researcher writes. “TL; DR: 200,000 real dollars.”
Bitcoin to 200,000 real dollars
MVRV Z, which measures the number of normative deviations located by the market value of the Bitcoin that is located above a realized formal, begins the stack. Currently, the result hovers a touch above 2. ElonMoney calls that “a neutral area, away from the feverish red range,” adding, “We tell us today’s reading that the tank is out of the void; the peaks of the previous cycle did not reach the degree of Z to seven.” The implicit meaning, according to the author, is that the price can double the current levels without violating historical symmetry.
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Energy economics reach a similar rule. “The energy value works as a good attractiveness for the price,” explains ElonMoney, referring to the oscillator of the energy value, which equals the just theoretical value to collect energy consumption in the network. The fair value line is located near 130,000 dollars-the lamb-so the oscillator itself is close to scratch.
“Until the oscillator displays a premium of 100 percent, talking about a terminal summit from the previous time,” he says, pointing to the peak of 2021, when the installment exceeded a hundred percent, although bitcoin was crowned less than $ 70,000. In light of the current retail expectations, the fair value of the model can reach $ 150,000 by October; Repeating the historical installment will lead to the price of the price of $ 225,000 to $ 300,000.
Detactions measurement from distance provides confirmation instead of contradiction. It reads the Bitcoin heater, a compound of permanent SWAP financing, the basis of evaluation spread and deviation options, 0.6-0.7. “The derivatives started in low heat, not boiling,” the note says. “We are not anywhere near the ongoing publications that exceed 0.9 and which bleed in the bombing peaks. Estation needs influence, and the leverage still only rises.”
The macro index, which was designed from more than forty inputs on the chain and macro, is currently recorded +0.7. “This is an unambiguous expansion print,” ELONMENEY recognizes, “but expansion is not an exhaustion. In 2021, we saw the same summit in three.” The researcher stresses that the user’s growth, fee revenues, profit chain and the achieved loss are all indicating the economy that accelerates, not slowdown.
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The depth of liquidity, which was captured by the special “summer summer” scale, is favorable but defeated. The report says: “The capital returns to the local markets, yet we have not seen the most prominent green events that accompany the seals of the retail,” the report says. Reading the last scale of +75,000 units contrasts with the number +150,000, which recorded sixty days before the April 2021 summit.
Finally, the leverage comes in absolute terms. The total open interest rate to the market value is slightly lower than 3.5 %. ElonMoney calls the number “constructive but not combustible”, adding, “Mechanical market cannot lead until speculators believe that it cannot fall. We are not at this stage yet. If OI/MCAP presses five percent, the warnings will look; even the leverage is fuel.”
Capriole does not publish itself as a target of the price, but by generalizing the analysis, it implicitly accepts the inferiority that Bitcoin has turned along with the end of the year. “200 thousand dollars”, reads the entire Capriole post, raising a screenshot of the main graph of the report.
The timing question depends on the speed of these six aspects of its maximum historical levels. ElonMoney offers a conditional road map: “If MVRV puncture seven, if the energy value is, the power premium collapses one hundred percent, if the heated pins are in one, and if OI/MCAP reaches five percent, you will know that the distribution area is on the horizon.” Except for this meeting, it is believed that the discovery of prices will grind higher. “Bitcoin does not die of aging,” and the observation is saved. “He dies of excessive value, and we haven’t wanted it yet.”
At the time of the press, Bitcoin was traded at 109,559 dollars, leaving nearly 90 % required to verify the validity of the ELONMONEY basic case before the end of the year.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
