It weakens the Australian dollar as anxious about the intensification of the growing global tariff war
- The Australian dollar remains under pressure, as RBA lecturers in February highlight the negative risks of the economy.
- Retail sales in Australia increased by 0.3 % of my mother in January, as it recovered from a 0.1 % decrease in December.
- The US dollar weakened after European leaders expressed support to ensure security for Ukraine, which has improved risk morale in global markets.
The Australian dollar (AUD) will decline against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as it abandons the recent gains. The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure after the issuance of the Australian Reserve Bank meetings (RBA) and retail sales data.
RBA’s lecturers in February highlighted the negative risks of the economy. While the Board of Directors approved the labor market strength as a major reason to maintain rates, he indicated that the current distress was inconsistent with the target of inflation by 2.5 %. In the end, the council witnessed a stronger issue to reduce rates.
Retail sales increased in Australia, a major indication of consumer spending, by 0.3 % months in January, which wore a 0.1 % decrease in December. However, the Anz-Roy Mory Australian Index decreased to 87.7 from 89.8 in the previous week, when it reached its highest level since May 2022.
AUD also faces pressure after the White House confirmed that US President Donald Trump had a tariff for Chinese imports to 20 %. It is worth noting that Trump has not yet violated similar orders for Mexico and Canada. Given the role of China as a major commercial partner in Australia, any economic transformations in China can significantly affect the Australian dollar.
A statement issued by the Canadian Prime Minister’s office confirmed that Canada will impose a 25 % reprisal definition on US imports that start on Tuesday if the American definitions become valid. Meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Trade announced early on Tuesday that it would take “necessary counter measures” to protect the country’s legitimate rights and interests.
The Australian Financial Review Summit 2025 Summit starts on Tuesday, which includes industry leaders. David Solomon, Chairman and CEO of the Goldman Sachs Group, is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, while Andrew Hauser, Australian Vice President of the Australian Reserve Bank, will address the attendees on Wednesday.
The weakest of the Australian dollar after Trump signed, which raises 20 % of the customs tariffs on Chinese imports
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar for six main currencies, is still defeated about 106.50 at the time of writing this report. Greenback faces the land pressure as a shoulder of the potential peace agreement in Ukraine mixing the demand for safe assets. European leaders have expressed support for security guarantees for Ukraine, which enhances risk morale across global markets.
- On Monday, the economic data of the United States (United States) made mixed signals. The ISM manufacturing manager came in 50.3, just less than 50.5 forecasts and below from 50.9 January. On the contrary, the final information managers of the S& PGLABAL FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FO FOBRUARY exceeded the expectations of 52.7, which improved its initial reading.
- The US PCE inflation report achieved expectations, as the monthly PCE holds 0.3 %. Core PCE increased to 0.3 % a little from 0.2 % in December, while PCE reached the annual title 2.6 %, as it exceeded some expectations but unchanged from the number of December. Core PCE fell to 2.6 %, a decrease from 2.9 % revised in December.
- According to Bloomberg, a defense official, the United States “stopped” all current military aid to Ukraine. The official stated that all American military equipment that has not been done in Ukraine will stop yet, including weapons while crossing through aircraft and ships, as well as those that are waiting in the transport areas of Poland. According to President Trump, the Defense Minister Beit Higseth was directed to implement the decision.
- Tensions between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodimir Zelinski escalated during the peace agreement negotiations on Friday. Zelenskyy was expected to sign an agreement that gives the United States the largest access to rare land minerals in Ukraine and participated in a joint press conference, but the plan was abandoned after a hot exchange between leaders to the media. In the aftermath of the confrontation, in which Trump expressed his contempt, senior advisers asked Zelinski to leave the White House.
- The S & P Global Australia Manufacturing Managers (PMI) was reviewed to 50.4 in February of a preliminary estimate of 50.6 but it remained over 50.2 January. This represents the second consecutive month of improvement in manufacturing conditions and the strongest growth since February 2023.
- The TD-Mi inflation scale in Australia fell 0.2 % month in February, reflecting a 0.1 % increase in January. This represents the first decline since last August and followed the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) decision to reduce its cash price by 25 basis points to 4.1 % during the first monetary policy meeting for this year, which reflects the continued slowdown in basic inflation. However, on an annual basis, the scale increased by 2.2 %, slightly less than the previous 2.3 % increase.
- The Purchase Manager Index in China (PMI) in China rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1 January, which exceeds the market expectations of 50.3. PMI manufactured NBS to 50.2 in February 49.1 before. This number came stronger than the expected 49.9. Meanwhile, NBS’s non -manufactured purchasing managers rose to 50.4 in February 50.2 in January, overcoming 50.3.
The Australian dollar maintains a position higher than 0.6200 support despite the constant pressure
The AUD/USD is trading near 0.6210 on Tuesday, and remains under pressure as the SIA moving averages are from nine days (EMA). GPS signals weaken momentum in the short term. In addition, the 24 -day relative index (RSI) is still less than 50 years, which enhances the downside.
Despite the declining pressure, the husband keeps the main support at the psychological level of 0.6200. A break below this level can pay the price about 0.6087, its lowest level since April 2020, registered on February 3.
On the upper side, the initial resistance in EMA is for nine days from 0.6266, followed by EMA for 50 days at 0.6304. The decisive overlook may lead to a short -term momentum, which may lead to a re -test of the highest level in three months at 0.6408, on February 21.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Japanese yen.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | -0.03 % | 0.03 % | -0.12 % | -11 % | 0.17 % | 0.11 % | -05 % | |
| euro | 0.03 % | 0.05 % | -08 % | -08 % | 0.19 % | 0.13 % | -04 % | |
| GBP | -0.03 % | -05 % | -0.13 % | -0.14 % | 0.14 % | 0.08 % | -07 % | |
| JPY | 0.12 % | 0.08 % | 0.13 % | 0.00 % | 0.28 % | 0.21 % | 0.06 % | |
| CAD | 0.11 % | 0.08 % | 0.14 % | -0.00 % | 0.27 % | 0.23 % | 0.06 % | |
| Aud | -0.17 % | -0.19 % | -0.14 % | -0.28 % | -0.27 % | -05 % | -0.22 % | |
| Nzd | -11 % | -0.13 % | -08 % | -0.21 % | -0.23 % | 0.05 % | -16 % | |
| Chf | 0.05 % | 0.04 % | 0.07 % | -06 % | -06 % | 0.22 % | 0.16 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
