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In a note issued on February 25, 2025, Matt Hogan-Investment Officer (CIO) at BitWise Management-similar similarities between the encryption market today and what he noticed in July 2024. entitled “short-term pain, long-term gain Hogan is the last that despite the current withdrawal, the basics of the basic industry are still convincing It was always.
Echoes of encryption in July 2024
Hogan opened his memo by calling the environment in July 2024, when he formulated a previous piece called “short -term pain, long -term gains”. At that time, the encryption markets were reeling: “Bitcoin, whose peak was above $ 73,000 in March 2024, fell to about $ 55,000, with 24 % withdrawal. Ethereum decreased by 27 % during the same time period.”
At the time, Hogan pointed out that “the encryption market faces a strange dynamic at the moment. All short -term news, and all the long -term news is good.” He also referred to stimuli such as possible ETF flows, half half -bitcoin, and the most supportive policy in Washington, DC, unlike them with moderate risks at the time such as MT. distributions. Gox and government sales from Bitcoin.
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This analysis has been proven in time. “Soon after I wrote the memo, the Bitcoin bottom and started rupture directly to $ 100,000,” Hogan wrote. In recent notes, he sees a similar double play: negative developments in the short term on the one hand, and the backgrounds in the long term on the other hand.
Yesterday, the encryption markets were under renewable pressure: Bitcoin fell at one point over 10 % to 86.050 dollars, ETHEREM by 18 %, and Solana by 21 %. The Forress Trigger: Hack of Bybit at the end of last week, a Singapore headquarters, which suffered from ETHEREUM theft of $ 1.5 billion through a fraud.
Although bybit has decreased in its reserves to make customers cumin, the breach hesitates throughout the industry. The penetration was followed by a series of mimin fraud, including the scale, supported by the Argentine president and referred to the encryption supporter Javier Miley. Memecoin cost billions of investors in what Hougan described as “billions of dollars in a fraud.”
Moreover, Melania, a project linked to the first lady Melania Trump, has caused great losses to the distinguished symbol holders. Trump, Mimikoen is linked to US President Donald Trump was not better.
“These events are likely to be at the end of the last Mimin mutation,” Hogan commented. While many participants in the institutional and long-term encryption may view the MIMED sector, the volume of trading and parks has fueled market activity in general-especially in the Solana ecosystem.
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Despite negative headlines, Hougan refers to a strong foundation under the encryption market. First, Hougan highlights the supportive list of Crypto under the Trump administration. In his opinion, “We are in the early days of a tremendous shift in Washington’s position towards encryption.” He cited the decision of the recent US Securities and Stock Exchange to drop prominent lawsuits against companies such as Coinbase, the ongoing legislative efforts on Stablecoins and the market structure. He claims that such developments will help storm the prevailing financing.
Second, institutional adoption is still growing. Buyers are widely stipulated-including asset managers, companies and even governments-assembling bitcoin. Hogan notes that so far this year, “investors have achieved $ 4.3 billion in Bitcoin’s investment funds”, and this number is expected to reach $ 50 billion by the end of the year.
Hogan also expects stablecoin mutation. The stablecoin assets increased under management to $ 220 billion, representing a 50 % jump from last year. With positive legislation that creates its way through Congress, Hogan believes that the sector can grow into a trillion dollars by 2027.
Finally, Cio BitWise predicts birth from Defi and tokeenization. Entity, trading, prediction markets and derivatives see the increasing use. At the same time, the distinctive symbol of the real worlds continues to reach its highest levels in all assets, indicating that the representations based on securities and traditional goods may be at a rise.
Hougan refers to his thesis in July 2024 to emphasize the opportunity today. On the negative side, the markets must move in the final tremors of the huge penetration of bybit and the collapse of multiple Memecoin projects. On the positive side, organizational clarity, institutional flows, expansion of Stablecoin, and Defi innovation continues unabated.
“This is what I call other than thinking,” Hogan wrote, stressing his position that the dangerous factors in the long term outperformed a majority in the short term. It provides a measurement warning, noting that this withdrawal may be more clear than last summer’s decline: “The micoin boom was great, and alcohol headache may be more important. It may take days, weeks or months to work through it.”
However, its conclusion is still firm: the narration of long -term growth remains intact. “When this happens, I love my long -term money,” stated, repeatedly that patience in the market can often be affected by the fluctuations that depend on the title.
At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 88,349.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
