Why do product managers need to think about the first victory.
We start. We win. We smile.
After that, something is revealed. Support waiting lists. Users are confused. The point is fingers.
This is exactly what a second degree thinking.
It is a mental model that must be in a booklet every evening. Not to destroy the party, but to ensure that it does not end with chaos.
Here is how I explain this to my team:
It is the effect of ripples. Just focus on what can happen wrong.
Not only what is broken in the code, but what breaks because Something is very well. It is the skill of survival. It is something that most people do not allocate until it is too late.
Let’s allocate time now.
The feature that made a car cheaper than coffee
We have once worked with OEM who wanted automatic discounts on vehicle search results. It seemed not harmful. Show cheaper prices, attract clicks.
Only problem?
The price of mathematics is strange. Really strange.
Combine the logic of leasing with high payments – suddenly, it was a luxury car cheaper than Lati.
We had to charge a prelude to a precious repair In a week.
Hot repairs mean lower test coverage. This means insects. This means fire exercises.
Yes, we finally built a feature that we were dragging our feet.
No, this was not the plan.
You get the picture. One small change. Large ripples.
The CMU project, which led to almost reverse results
Once again at the Graduate School, we were designing a disaster relief system with Etone for Portoresto.
an idea: The refrigerators that work in the fun. Low technology, high value. Maintains fresh food. Children keep busy.
Then we got to the session in which we asked, “What can happen wrong?”
It turns out – pediatric pedal, calorie burning, getting hunger.
Food works low. The supply chains are already broken.
Now, we have made the basic problem worse.
We raised it. Painful, but the right.
The second degree thinking saved us from providing a good disaster.
Stand that mocked
Early from my administrative trip, I thought it would be enjoyable (Useful) To rotate those who manage our daily positions.
Irrigation: Everyone remains involved, and the PMS gets a low -risk leadership representative.
Reality: Six versions of the same meeting, and zero consistency.
Some keep it short. Add some new questions. Some have completely forgotten.
The updates are scattered. Follow people in DMS. A few blockers were completely missed.
Everything is more slowed than we bring us together.
It was not a disaster. But she made something that was supposed to build quietly.
This was the ripple.
One of the small decision, which was taken with good intentions, led to confusion and fragmentation and a group of “We have already talked about this?” Moments.
Even small rituals carry systems together. Tampering with them without clarity, and you mess with everything around them.
The project I am now
Now, I am in the middle of the launch of a huge customer. There are many projects that work in parallel, each of which has their own final dates, consequences and mini fires. The team’s heads are broken. The finish line is approaching.
But this is the part that no one wants to think about: What happens after that?
If this launch goes well, then the use will rise. This means more support tickets. More questions. More operating pressure. The internal team will need to capture the next stage. But do they know that yet?
There is no post -launch plan. There is no clear owner. No insulating stability. This is the problem. When you turn on these second -class rapid risks, it is only unlikely. It is guaranteed.
So, here is what we pay for:
- Determine the operations to support the customer. Not just a delivery document, but a real support system. One corresponds to the difference around it, sort the tickets, and the work progress of customers.
- Building a pod from PMS responsible for this customer. Because “whoever has the next” should not be a mystery. This pod is the future spine to expand the platform. They will know the customer, product and pressure.
- Acceptance of the difficult truth: If people do not use this, we are tired. Adoption is not optional. It is the only verification that matters. If we do not plan to change behavior, we will explain the standards instead of celebrating it.
- Bake the platform effect on each feature from here. This is not just a launch. It is a system. Every new building touches other systems, workflow and people. The features do not live in silos – road maps cannot.
This is not related to drama. This relates to facing what is happening when you succeed.
If success is the only thing you plan, you are preparing yourself for your victories.
Use this scheme (literally!)
You do not need a strategic document. You need to check a ripple.
Planning name: Radar ripples
Axial point:
Start the decision. New feature. Politics turns. Strategic bet.
Feature or Implementation Layer:
- What is clearly changing in the interface or workflow?
- If it is an advantage: What are the screens, steps or flows that change?
- If the company’s decision is: What are the roles, rituals, or rules that are transformed?
User class or stakeholders:
- What are the new behaviors, confusion or reactions that may appear?
- What do customers or final users expect now?
- What will the internal teams assume, adopt, or resist?
Org layer:
- Who has the follow -up? Functions? Chaos?
- What difference do you need to respond, expand, explain, or defend it?
- Is the shows defined or left to the coincidence?
System layer:
- What are the platforms, flows, or measures that are launched?
- Where are the dependencies broken?
What are the future plans that now need to be transformed?
You can run any decision, launch or strategy through this framework. Set the owners for each class in the pre -launch meeting, advance or leadership.
Make it part of your product rituals.
Use it in driving reviews.
Use it when someone says, “Let’s just try this and see.”
Because the effect of the ripple actually occurs. You only have not drawn it yet.
Want to look like a leader? Start sounding crazy
Not about launch.
About what is happening because Work work.
Final thought
The second degree thinking is not negative.
It comes to building a part of the system that has not yet been met.
You do not win the failure. You win this.
This is the job. This is the driving of the product.
