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In video Entitled “Total expectations for the year 2025: the big moves forward”, Julian Beetle, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), put an air perspective about where growth and inflation trends seem, why the next cycle looks closer to 2017 of 2021, and how Bitcoin can be prepared for the bullish direction if its historical relationship with the ISM and global liquidity institute index is correct.
Forcast: coming Bitcoin Macro
BitTel explained that the total “summer” is the dominant system that he sees reveals throughout 2025, which means that the momentum of growth is captured while inflation remains modest enough for central banks to avoid overcoming. He stressed that “the work course is still flowing along,” noting that global manufacturing data improved and the fact that more countries have turned into an expansion zone. Although minor fluctuations continue in some indicators, including pockets that are briefly slowed, BitTel is still confident that this does not smell the appearance of the new “fall” with a slowdown in constant growth and high inflation. Instead, it is suggested that these opposite winds will prove short -term, given a comprehensive environment in which global financial conditions are abandoned.
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He highlighted the decrease in the revenues of American bonds and the last weakening of the dollar as factors that allow “more cowboy” from central banks. Chinese bond returns, which BitTel sees a major indication that Beijing can provide additional liquidity without fear of excessive temperature. He described this mix as resonance for the year 2017, the year in which the most entertaining interest rates and lower interest rates contributed to the rise in both traditional markets and encrypted currencies.
By moving to inflation, BitTel has dissected the reason that shelter and other costs related to the service such great arrears. He noticed that more than a third of the main consumer price index is linked to housing, which “usually fails for about 17 months of home prices”, and pointed out that shelter inflation still maintains the high number of consumer price index. This dynamic is expected to give the central banks a deadline to reduce monetary policy once the data is seen. While some periodic forces, such as basic commodity prices, may push inflation to the top later in the year, Bittel confirms that the peak is not imminent and that the federal reserve will probably retain enough flexibility to avoid strangling the continuous economic apostasy.
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When discussing Bitcoin, BitTel focused on the role of a working cycle in leading huge price movements. He stated that when the ISM index was barely hovering above 50 in 2013 and 2017, the leading cryptocurrency in the assembly moved by dozens of complications. In 2021, the overall picture was suddenly topped as soon as ISM and liquidity reached its climax, and she shortened the cycle and crowned Bitcoin in a move approximately 8x of its first axis of the recession. Today’s background looks differently. Bittel noted that “ISM is now moving above 50”, which contradicts the late 2020-2021 increase in the period racing from the 1940s to almost the mid-sixties in the same one.
He added that “if we are right about the weakest dollar and the receipt in global liquidity,” the Bitcoin track can resemble the most closely triggered rush for the year 2017 than the compressed momentum for 2021., he referred to the historical precedent of the 23X jump in 2017 as soon as the course gained traction. . His option was clear – he has repeatedly stated that these moves are never guaranteed and that “I do not tell you that Bitcoin is running 23X”, but he also stressed that in every previous encrypted operation, the ongoing force in the work cycle has proven “” the magic gift that continues to give ” It is believed that the institution has been appointed to an extended rise, yet each person reminded that clouds from 20 to 30 % are inevitable even during strong gatherings.
He also pointed out that “as soon as you understand where the economy is going, you understand where the assets are going,” and repeated that liquidity, especially from China, can become a larger driver for digital assets with the progress of 2025. Bittel has strengthened this point, saying: “historically, The largest tunnel occurred in Bitcoin when ISM rises and we are in the total summer. “
He also highlighted that no short -term declines in Bitcoin should be mistaken in macro system attacks. Periodic conditions, which are fueled by financial conditions, remain easier, in place, although he reminded viewers of expecting corrections and staying patient. As he put it, “he is not a straight line”, and he can feel like “the end of the world” in some weeks. However, given the similarities until 2017 and the continuous segments of dollars, it is believed that the Bitcoin runway – and other risk origins – is still relatively long.
While Bittel also dealt with the wider market sectors, such as goods and periodic stocks, Bitcoin receives a special focus. In explaining the reason for the GMI’s total framework, Bittel stressed that “declines for purchase”, provided that investors monitor signs of any deeper structural slowdown. He stressed that “no one should forget that if you register in Bitcoin, you are registered for volatility”, but with the work cycle only you just started in the conditions of ascension and liquidity, there may be a wide space for bitcoin to move alongside its previous peak if the data continues to prefer Periodic expansion.
At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 97,710.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
