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The risk of stagnation and uncertainty in the macro is currently again in the center of the market speech, as Bitcoin has decreased by 20 % of its peak. However, the macro -tomas analyst (TomsonMarkets) claims that the broader economic background is not confused as some addresses indicate, although some data groups indicate weaker growth in early 2025.
“It does not seem to me very stagnant?” Thomas wrote in a hadith mail On X, repeating the suspicion he kept for several months. He referred to specific indicators that started slipping in February, but began to settle. According to his analysis, the American growth now-which combines various measures in the actual time of economic growth-“decreased during the month of February but was settled for three weeks.” He also referred to the Citi Economic SRISSE (CESI), which tracks how to compare actual economic data with consensus expectations. Since January, Cesi has been in a state of recession, which implicitly means that data versions have been less than expectations, but also settled in recent weeks.
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“Cesi = Data coming in expectations, and the height of CESI = Data coming in the above expectations,” Thomas explained, highlighting the importance of the market morale index. The end result is that although the markets have become increasingly defensive during the weakness of the year in the year, these indicators no longer deteriorate at the pace that were observed at the beginning of 2025.
Why does Bitcoin reflect the summer of 2024
Then Thomas turned his attention to the similarities between the current environment and two prominent previous episodes: summer disorder in 2024 and the late 2018 body. He emphasized that, in every case, global markets faced sharp clouds resulting from what he described as “growth/stagnation scares”, along with other external pressure.
“For me, the modern cases that are similar to today in terms of each of the price procedures and the macro background are the summer of 2024 and late 2018,” he wrote. During the summer of 2024, fears related to growth in addition to the widespread spread of the yen contributed 10 % to withdraw the stock market. In late 2018, an escalating trade battle during a tariff movement during Trump’s first era pushed similarly to an initial correction in stock about 10 %, eventually deepening a 15 % decrease.
Now, as stock markets also decrease almost 10 % of the peak to the barrier, Thomas sees distinct echoes of these historical moments. He pointed out that such similarities extend to Bitcoin, which decreased around 30 % in the summer of 2024 and 54 % in late 2018 – to the 30 % slide that this time endured. The question that he posed is any path awaiting: Will the market follow the correction of the summer of 2024 that is relatively present, or will it turn into a series of painful losses similar to the sale of late 2018?
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“So what way?” Thomas’s request, which confirms an uncertain turn in the face of both encryption origins and stocks. His position tends to expect a scenario closer to the summer of 2024 more than the turmoil in 2018. He put it, “I still in the camp that the customs tariff will not be bad as many expect – I have been here for months,” a view that also believes explaining the amazing flexibility in recent origins. He suggested that “some noise during the past two days may indicate this result, and this is perhaps the reason that the origins of the risk have jumped today,” although he did not stop claiming any final decision.
Many factors, from Thomas’s point of view, enhance the situation in which the scene today is more closely consistent with the summer of 2024 more than late 2018. One of them is the last mitigation of the financial conditions, which were tightened earlier this year but since. Another is the noticeable weakness of the US dollar in recent weeks, and it is a flagrant contradiction with its rise during 2018, which intensified the pressure pressure on global assets.
Thomas added that most of the leading indicators still support a continuous expansion of the business course, a position that is believed to be less reflection of the shrinkage signals that have rocked investors for nearly seven years. He pointed out that there is another contributing element, which is generally favorable to American stock indicators, which often recover after twice the month of February and find a more stable foot by mid -March. Finally, narrow credit differences – less than their highest levels seen in August 2024 – show stable credit markets that do not seem pricing in severe economic distress.
In addition to the issue of total signals, Thomas has publicly admitted tiredness with the cycle of discussions on economic policy incentives. “Frankly, I am bored of all the hadiths of the customs tariff,” he wrote, while the followers state that April 2 remains a pivotal for clarification. He concluded by saying: “It is possible that” the day of liberation of the tariff “on April 2 will play a major role in decision -making.
At the time of the press, Bitcoin was traded at $ 86,557.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
