The new ETFS in 2025 is now a real possibility with Bloomberg and Polymarket while giving a decent chance of some encryption such as XRP, SOL, LTC, DOGE or ADA for the immediate ETFS approval this year.
Ada in 71 % of the coincidence On data from polymarket. However, if ADA ETFS is approved, how will this affect the price? What if this ETFS has 5 % of the first 15 -month ETF flows?
Keep in mind that these assumptions are based on the current ADA price, so if the investment funds are already circulated at the current ADA price.
Countable ADA ETF flows
As of April 30, 2025, We have a bitcoin spot in circulating investment funds Nearly $ 39.17 billion has accumulated a total net flow since its launch in January 2024, according to data from Farside Investors.
If Cardano ETF will get 5 % of ETF Bitcoin flows, it will reach about $ 1.96 billion. This is a direct account: 39.17 billion dollars multiplied by $ 5 % gives us $ 1.9585 billion in possible flows of ETF Ada.
To understand how this can affect the ADA price, we need to consider the current market standards. Currently, ADA is trading about $ 0.68 per currency. With a circulating supply of about 35.7 billion ADA, this gives Cardano the maximum of the current market with about 24.3 billion dollars.
#ETF news: Bloomberg Intelligence presented its classification of Crypto ETF approvals in 2025
– Martyplement (Martyparthymusic) April 30, 2025
90 % possibility $ Ltc and $ Sol
ADA Prices Prices Screen
If we add possible ETF flows to the maximum Cardano market, we can estimate the price effect. In an ideal scenario where 100 % of ETF flows are translated into the ADA direct purchase, the account is clear and direct. We will add $ 1.9585 billion to the maximum of the current market of $ 24.3 billion, which leads to the maximum of a new market of about 26.24 billion dollars.
With the same circulating offer of 35.7 billion ADA, the new price will be about $ 0.735 per currency. This represents an 8 % increase over the current price of $ 0.68.
However, this perfect scenario rarely occurs in practice. The most realistic approach is to consider that only part of ETF flows creates an immediate purchase pressure in the open market. Several investment funds circulating in the field of medical trading or gradually used assets to avoid market disturbance.
If we assume a more conservative scenario as it reflects only 30 % of the instant purchase pressure flows, the effect will be smaller. Thirty percent from 1.9585 billion dollars about 587.5 million dollars. Adding this to the maximum of the current market gives us 24.87 billion dollars. This would lead to a new price of about $ 0.697, which represents an increase of 2.5 %.
Why not send Etf Ada’s approval to the moon
There are several reasons for the lack of operation of Ada ETF automatically an increase in prices. First, ETF flows do not translate directly into instant asset purchases. When ETF is launched, managers usually accumulate the assets slowly to reduce the slide.
They often use trading offices that do not need a prescription or work with guards instead of buying directly on the stock exchanges. This means that even if billions flow to ETF ADA, only the fracture may create an immediate purchase pressure.
Second, Cardano supplies are much larger than Bitcoin’s. With more than 35.7 billion ADA trading compared to a maximum of 21 million coins of Bitcoin, Cardano has more than 1600 times of the number of coins. This big offer makes it difficult for any one event, even ETF billion dollars, to move the price significantly in the short term.
Third, markets are often priced in expectations before events actually occur. The encryption market follows the classic “purchase of rumors, selling news”. By the time ADA ETF receives approval, a lot of expected effect on the price may be reflected. Unless the ETF flows exceed the market expectations significantly, the actual price gains may be kept after approval.
Cardanians (CRDN) (Cardanians_IO) April 30, 2025
Only in: Cardano Possibilities $ Ada ETF Spot approval in 2025 to 71 %, according to polymarket. pic.twitter.com/ulgfsfikeya
Fourth, the institutional demand is different from the retail interest. Even with ETF approval, ADA is still seen mainly as Altcoin focusing on retail. Founding investors tend to be conservative and may prefer bitcoin or Ethereum due to their firm organizational clarity and deeper liquidity. This may limit the immediate institutional adoption of ADA ETF.
Finally, sustainable price growth requires more than just investment vehicles. While ETF is certainly promoting Cardano’s credibility in traditional financial circuits, the long -term value of the encoded currency depends on the growth of the ecological system, decentralized financing activity, and its adoption in the real world of its technology. Without progress in these areas, any price gains may be temporary ETF approval.
Also read: Should you throw $ 1,000 in Cardano now? Ada Price Outlook
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ADA ETF will be a positive development for Cardano, which may bring new credibility and modest capital flows. However, it is important to maintain realistic expectations. Based on our accounts, if Ada ETF picks up 5 % of Bitcoin ETF flows, we may see the ADA price in a range of $ 0.70 to $ 0.74 in the best scenario.
Real price growth ultimately requires adoption, interest and constant momentum of development. Although ETF approval will be a bullish sign, it is not a magic solution that will automatically send prices. Investors must expect gradually growth instead of an immediate price explosion, unless the broader encryption market morale turns very positive.
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