I formulated the term: Mutual refining capacity (Marc) ™.
Contrary to mutual destruction (MAD), which depends on nuclear deterrence, Marc ™ connects countries by relying on rare oil refineries.
We can call it a thesis, idea or idea of action under development – the guards’ bars of energy flows, a preliminary way I assess political geography and its borders from time to time.
The world has about 825 refineries to treat about 100 million barrels per day (BPD) worldwide, which disrupts this supply chain in the economic collapse of all.
Marc ™ © term to highlight this power that has been ignored for world peace.
The refineries are important and complex
The typical crude refinery process.
TL; DFiltering supplies are a complex network of global sources, which requires 5-10 billion dollars, 50,000 tons of steel, 10,000 workers (with 20 % shortage of employment), 1,000 tons of stimuli, and 10,000 backup pieces for each facility, with more than 10,000 failures that can cut and fuel prices by 10-20 %.
Refiners convert crude oil into basic fuel such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, which operates modern economies. With only 825 attached all over the world, it creates the ray of the world bottle neck. Any disturbance – penalties, sanctions, or natural disasters – gives fuel prices and leads trade stability.
Mark ™: New geopolitical power
Mark ™ imposes peace through economic bonding, not fear. Countries depend on each other’s refineries to meet fuel requirements. A comprehensive war will paralyze these supply chains, which makes the safer option skirmishes.
International farewell landscape
The 825 refineries are distributed in the world unevenly, as Asia tops 320 facilities (36.5 million barrels per day). North America has 150 refineries (22 million barrels per day), while Europe and the Middle East have 120 and 73, respectively. There is no self -sufficient area, forcing dependence on trade.
Table 1: World Refinery Scene (2024)
American refining role
The United States, with 129 refinery refineries (18.4 million barrels per day), is a dedication force. However, it imports 1.5 million barrels per day of heavy crude from Canada and Mexico for Gulf Coast plants.
The conflict that disrupts these flows may raise American gas prices by approximately 20 % ($ 0.75/gallon).
Complexing the refinery supply chains
From the perspective of chemical engineering, the filter supplies chains are marveling, as thousands of specialized components, microscopic chemical processes, and global logistics are integrated to build, operate and maintain these critical facilities. Complex consequences across countries and industries inflame the role of Marc ™ in deterring conflict, as no nation can disrupt this web without self -harm.
Building and capital density
The refinery construction is a huge task, which requires years of planning, billions of investment, and very specialized working forces. This process includes the identification of materials from dozens of countries and skilled workers such as welders and chemical engineers, who are increasingly. Each facility is a dedicated engineering project specifically designed for specified raw types, as a lack of employment adds great delays and costs.
- Scales:
- Cost: 5-10 billion dollars per refinery.
- Steel requirements: about 50,000 tons of high -quality steel (for example, from Japan, South Korea) for distillation towers, reactors.
- Manpower: About 10,000 workers during construction, including 2000-3000 specialized welding and 500 chemical engineers; The global deficiency of approximately 20 % of such skilled work (for example, US welding deficit: 50,000 by 2026).
- Building timetable: 5-7 years, spanning 6 to 12 months due to the scarcity of work.
Specialized ingredients and stimuli
Refinery operations depend on advanced equipment and stimuli, each with its global supply chain. FCC and water materials require precise materials to deal with high temperatures and pressure. These components are produced by a handful of suppliers, creating suffocation points.
- Scales:
- Motivation: About 1000 tons of Ziulite -based stimuli of the FCC units, which are obtained from Germany, China; It was replaced every 2-3 years at 10-20 million dollars per session.
- Hydrokracir’s ships: high pressure (up to 3000 pounds), made of chromium nickel alloys from Russia, South Africa; The deadline of 12-18 months.
- Cook Units: Reciter Coke Technology (for example, Foster Wheeler, United States), it takes 2-3 years of installation.
Raw and mixed offer
Wipes that mix rocks to improve the return, which require accurate chemical specifications. Raw quality inconsistency can reduce production, which disrupts global fuel markets.
Most of the refineries depend on imported crude, and link them to volatile political geography.
- Scales:
- Global crude trade: 80 million barrels per day, obtained from 20 countries.
- Example mix: 70 % Brent Light (API 38 °), 30 % heavy Venezuelan (API 16 °) for optimal returns.
- Specific requirements: API Gravity 30-40 °, Sulfur Content <2 %; Illusion reduces production by 10-15 %.
Maintenance and logistical weaknesses
Maintenance includes thousands of spare parts, each of which has its own supply chain. One delay can lead to the lethargy of the refinery, and cost millions per day. This fragility guarantees states to avoid disrupting the system.
- Scales:
- Spare parts: ~ 10,000 per refinery, including European control valves and Chinese pumps seals, which are obtained from 30+ countries.
- Stop working: 5-10 million dollars per day for the attachment of $ 1 billion.
- Failure points: More than 10,000 per refinery, from a catalyst for equipment failure.
Why mislead strategic reserves and zombie movies
TL; DSPRS (for example, 600-meter US barrels, 5-month supply) cannot be replaced by refineries, as raw processing and rapidly degraded fuel (gasoline loses 20 % in octane in 6-12 months), and exposes zombie films from long-term fuel storage. Apology: apologizing for the detailed collapse of SPRS and myths of fuel; It is important to show the reason why the Mark ™ refining network is the real spine of energy security!
SPRS is often understood as a strong shield against refinery disorders, but its limits and the rapid deterioration of the stored fuel reveals why the Marc ™ refining network has not responded. Zombie films mislead more ribs by decorating fuel depicting and ignoring chemical facts. This fragility enhances the need for global cooperation to maintain refining capacity.
The purpose and the size of SPRS
SPRS is designed to rid short -term oil supply shocks, but their ability is limited. SPR carries in the United States, the largest world, mostly crude oil, not refined fuel. This limits its effectiveness in long disorders.
- Scales:
- SPR capacity in the United States: about 600 million barrels of crude, equivalent to 60 days of US crude imports (10 million barrels per day).
- The maximum withdrawal rate: 3.5 million barrels per day, is restricted to the structure of pipes and ports.
The bottle cervical refinery
SPRS is a non -repetitive ore, which is incredible without operating refineries. The ability to refine, not the availability of raw, is the decisive restriction in the crisis. SPRS cannot treat special refinery disorders.
- Scales:
- American refining energy: 18.4 million barrels per day; The disorder will lead to 10 % (1.8 million barrels per day) to exhaust raw crude at about 5 months at the maximum.
- Refinement: 3-6 months and 100-200 million dollars in the recommendation costs of an open attachment.
Fuel legends and storage
Refined fuel quickly decomposes, exposing coma shields from long -term gas cache. Gasoline and diesel need continuous maintenance to remain used. This makes the fuel storage widely impractical.
- Scales:
- Gasoline deterioration: 20 % loses octane classification within 6-12 months due to oxidation.
- Diesel/Fuel Travel Alapable Corridor: 1-2 years with stabilizers; The cost of storage maintenance is $ 50-100 million annually.
Systemic consequences
SPRS cannot replace the complex supply chains of stimuli, spare parts or skilled workers needed to maintain the operation of refineries. The distribution of fuel also depends on electricity, which fails without plants operating plants. This confirms the decisive role of Mark ™.
- Scales:
- Recover supply chain: 1-2 years to rebuild stimulants or supply chains after interruption.
- Electricity dependency: Fuel pumps require ~ 1-2 megawatts for each large station, dependent on colander networks.
Why do many “wars” remain skirmishes
Marc ™ makes the war comprehensive economically disastrous. Filter breakdowns in the world, which harms allies and enemies alike. Here are five examples showing how I think Marc ™ Caps contradict the skirmishes.
Example 1: Israel Triangle, Iran Cina
The third largest trading partner in Israel is China, with $ 15 billion in annual imports (12 % of its total). China processes 17 million barrels per day and relies on Iran for 1.5 million barrels per day of sanctions resistant crude (10 % of imports).
If Israel targets Iran’s descriptions of 1.8 million barrels per day, the Chinese Shandong Hop (4.2 million barrels per day) will stop, which led to an increase in global diesel prices and the Israeli trade.
China’s refineries depend on Iranian -resistant crude.
Figure 1: Raw imports in China (2023)
Example 2: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s conflict
In 2019, Houthi attacks on the Abqaiq refinery in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (5.5 million barrels) reduced by 50 %, causing the global oil price to increase by 15 %. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which exports 30 % of its repeated products to Asia, escalates an escalation to protect $ 100 billion from trade. The demand for diesel in Asia ensures that conflicts are limited.
Example 3: Russia Ukraine Europ
Russia, which is 6.7 million barrels, is 40 % of diesel imports in Europe. Ukraine avoids targeting Russian refineries (for example, Tuapse, 240k BPD) to prevent fuel shortages in the European Union allies. Such turmoil can raise European diesel prices by 10-20 %.
Example 4: Pakistani Indian tensions
India’s 5 million barrels in India provides 20 % of South Asia fuel. Pakistan’s 450 kilos Bercher’s ability to do not meet the demand for domestic demand. The war will reduce India’s exports, which risk raising regional fuel rates by 25 %, so tensions remain in border clashes.
Example 5: The dynamics of Venezuela-the United States
American Gulf refineries is a 500 kilogram of BC from the Venezuelan crude. Penalties did not escalate to military conflict-if this flow would raise diesel prices for us by 10-15 %. Marc ™ inhibits direct confrontation.
Understand the complexity of the refinery
Refining varies according to the raw type – lighting/sweet (for example, WTI) requires simple refineries, while heavy/sour (for example, bitumen) requires complex cooking units. The closure in Iran or Venezuela affects diesel in Europe or gas in Ohio. The Marc ™ network is invisible but not broken.
Table 2: Types of Fair and Weakness
America refining security gaps
American refineries confrontations, which are more than 40 years average, risks of hurricanes, definitions and EV growth. 2 million barrels per day by 2030 (10 % of the total) can force 25 % fuel imports. Gulf interruption (for example, Saudi Tanura, 435 kb) would raise jet fuel prices by 15-20 %.
Future risks amplify Mark ™
By 2030, 20 % of the global refining capacity (20 million barrels per day) can be at risk of closing. Europe and China face the highest exposure and tightening supply chains. The Mark ™ effect will grow to provide peace.
Figure 2: The exposed refinery capacity (2030)
Global interconnection
Europe imports 30 % of the diesel from Asia. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia feeds aircraft in more than 50 countries. A single refinery attack may stop global aircraft, making the comprehensive economic suicide of war.
Mark ™ as the new reality
Marc ™ states guarantees priority to trade in destruction. Refiners are the major vulnerability in the world and have the ability to restrict potential wars to skirmishes or peace.
