The edges of gold are above the extent of Israel’s war, Iran with the Federal Reserve Bank in focus
- Gold moves about 3400 dollars before the interest rate of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.
- The Iranian -Iranian hostile works are intensified, supporting the safe appeal of alloys.
- Xau/USD edges as the US dollar remains under pressure.
Gold is moving top against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday, when merchants collected US retail sales data and monitored escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the time of this report, Xau/USD is trading about $ 3,392, with support from the high demand for safe adherence amid renewable geopolitical risk.
The latest retail sales report in the United States made mixed signals. The main address sales decreased by 0.9 % in May, a sharp decrease in expected decline by 0.7 % and more severe contraction since early 2024.
Sales, except for cars, also decreased by 0.3 %, indicating a widespread consumer weakness.
However, the control group, which directly affects GDP (GDP), increased by 0.4 %, recovered from April -0.1 %, indicating that basic consumption is still fixed.
For Federal Reserve (Fed), the data complicates policy expectations. While the main weakest numbers enhance the state of future price discounts, the company’s monitoring group reflects flexibility, which may delay any cash relief.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to support gold prices. The Israeli conflict has intensified Iran, with reports of fresh missiles and drone strikes, fears of a broader regional war. Fears regarding the security of the Strait of Hermoz-The main global oil transportation road is an increase in demand for safe assets, such as gold, where merchants are preparing for possible disturbances in the market.
Daily Digest Market March: Gold monitoring factors
- The Israeli conflict is still a major threat to global inflation, especially through its potential impact on oil supplies and shipping paths. The acute escalation can lead to an increase in energy prices, progress in inflation, and forcing central banks to maintain the high interest rates for a longer period. This scenario may harm gold, as it faces competing forces from hedging from inflation and higher American returns.
- US President Donald Trump said in a post on the social truth on Tuesday: “I could not communicate with Iran for” peace talks “in any way, shape or shape. This is just more fake news fabricated! If they want to speak, they know how to get to me.” He added that Iran “He should have assumed the deal on the table – he would have saved many lives.”
- The market’s reaction was after Trump earlier called on Iranian citizens to evacuate Tehran, with a warning of other strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated the message as the Israeli air strikes continued to target the Iranian nuclear and military sites. On Tuesday, the Iranian revolutionary guards confirmed new missile attacks and drones on Israeli positions. The increasing danger of a complete regional war has climbed Xau/USD about $ 3400.
- The focus on Wednesday will be on the SEP and DOT plot, which can reveal whether officials still expect price discounts or two in 2025 or back expectations in light of the recent inflation risk.
Technical analysis: Gold bulls return about 3400 dollars
On the graph for 4 hours, gold (Xau/USD) is merged over the 3,375-3,380 dollar support area, with another price of $ 3,392.
The simple simple moving average 20 (SMA) requires $ 3,408 the immediate upward trend, while the Fibonacci alternative by 23.6 % provides the last support of $ 3,371. Below, SMA reinforces 50-periods at $ 3,365 the main demand.
A break above 3,408 dollars may test the highest monthly levels at $ 3,446 and $ 3,452. On the downside, failure to keep 3,371 dollars can offer a deeper alternative about 3,292 dollars, which is 38.2 % Fibonacci. The RSI is hovering near 50, indicating a neutral momentum with an area to extend in either direction.
Gold 4 hours graph
Fed questions and answers
The monetary policy in the United States is formed by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Federal Reserve has two states: to achieve price stability and enhance full employment. Its primary performance to achieve these goals is to adjust interest rates. When prices rise very quickly and inflation is 2 % higher than the Federal Reserve goal, it raises interest rates, which increases borrowing costs throughout the economy. This leads to the most powerful USD (USD) because it makes the United States a more attractive place for international investors to stop their money. When inflation decreases to less than 2 % or the unemployment rate is very high, the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the green back.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight political meetings annually, as the FOOC Open Market Committee (FOMC) evaluates economic conditions and takes monetary policy decisions. FOMC attends twelve officials of the Federal Reserve-the seven members of the Governor, the President of the Federal Reserve in New York, and four regional regional presidents, the remaining regional regional, who serve for one year on a roundabout.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy called quantitative mitigation (QE). QE is the process that the Federal Reserve increases significantly from the flow of credit in a suspended financial system. It is a non -standard policy scale used during crises or when inflation is very low. The Federal Reserve’s favorite federal weapon was during the great financial crisis in 2008. It includes the printing of the Federal Reserve more than dollars and their use to buy high -quality bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US dollar.
The quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, as the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and the manager does not re -invest from mature bonds, to buy new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US dollar.
