Experts weigh on those who have the upper hand in the American -Chinese trade war

President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he expects an agreement “during the three weeks to the next four” that would end the escalating trade war with China.

“I think we will make a deal with China.” “I think we have a lot of time.”

There was no immediate confirmation from Beijing on whether a deal is likely to occur. Trump escaped questions about whether the leader of China, Xi Jinping, made the offer to end the battle of definitions.

This is the first time since Trump increased the customs tariff for China – up to 245 % – that the possibility of a deal appeared on the horizon.

Nick Vias, the founding director of the Randal Institute, said. Kindrik Global Supply series at South California University for Business Insider before Trump’s comments on Thursday: “It is a game between China and the United States in terms of Siomed in first place.” “China feels that they have all the cards that continue to withstand, and President Trump feels that he has power, because we consume more than China than China uses from us.”

He added: “Either way is correct, and one only has to wait, monitor and know the reality that will end in the end.”

The hands of the upper China? Its government system

Business Insider experts have told Xi that XI may have time and more financial lever from Trump.

“XI can make life difficult for some American technology companies and farmers in the Middle West, but the damage to China by the United States may be much worse,” said Andrew Koller, an older colleague at the Musaar Ruhani Business and Government Center at Harvard Kennedy School. “On the other hand, the political pressure on Trump in democracy is likely to be much higher once people realize how bad the economy and markets are.”

“The authoritarian regime in China is an advantage here,” he added.

Vias said that despite the end of Trump in four years, Shi is the president of China for life “long horizon.”

Vias added that the eleventh does not need to worry about elections or consumer feelings, which may make this “long battle drawn”.

Vyas also indicated that China has the dominance of the EV market and controls 85 % of the ability to treat rare ground minerals, which would affect the United States’s defense capabilities and artificial intelligence aspirations if China completely reduces this offer.

History of commercial conflict

Trump has the date of raising definitions on China in attempts to reduce the American trade deficit and re -manufacturing functions.

In 2017, his administration began an investigation into the commercial practices of China, and in 2018, a 25 % tariff imposed on some Chinese exports, such as electronics and car parts.

In February of this year, Trump targeted China with definitions twice, which led to 20 % in China’s duties by the end of the month. On April 2, Trump hit China again with a 34 % tariff. After China responded to the definitions of American exports, then it raised this number to 125 %, then 145 %, and now up to 245 % according to the White House document.

China has announced 125 % anti -commodities on American goods by April 11, and exports of rare ground elements dating back to American defense industries.

Previous efforts to reduce trade deficit with China have achieved limited results. In 2024, the trade deficit amounted to about $ 295 billion, less than 375 billion dollars in 2017, but it is still more than twice the total amount of US exports to China in one year.

Both the United States and China leave other countries

With the United States taking a more difficult position on global trade, Ililaria Mazzocco, an older colleague in Chinese business and economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told China that China sees a “diplomatic opportunity” to launch a “magic attack”.

“It seems that the talks between the European Union and China have taken a softer tone,” said Mazuku. “There is hope on the side of Beijing to show that by showing that it is two more realistic, circulating, reliable, and global partner, the two countries will feel reassuring, and will improve their external relations, as is the case with the European Union, where there was a lot of tension.”

After meeting with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Beijing last week, Xi began a tour throughout Southeast Asia to sign deals on infrastructure and trade. The Xi station in Malaysia led to deals on artificial intelligence, railway connection, and coconut export.

European Union leaders are also planning to travel to Beijing at the summit of late July with XI, which Mazzocco says it may be a chance of China to admit that it suffers from a structural issue of excessive production and obligations to address it.

However, Mazzocco added, which is unlikely to replace the United States with the United States with China as a commercial partner, because China has no strong internal demand for consumers to accommodate imports from abroad.

The United States is also in talks with European Union leaders. In the White House on Thursday, Italian Prime Minister Trump told Georgia Meloni that a deal between the European Union and the United States “100 %” will be reached at a certain stage.

Mazzocco notes that the inability to predict Trump’s policies may be harmful to reach a deal, and is at risk of making US allies quietly retreating in the long run.

“It seems that we understand that part of the goal is to extract concessions from commercial partners, and these concessions may be economic or related to defense, but the inability to predict is not useful.” Mazoko said. “This is really dangerous because it can undermine the world’s commercial feelings, and it can also stimulate the long -term American commercial partners to be less dependent on the United States, diplomatic and trade.”