- EURO failed to take advantage of the optimistic GDP and retail sales; Reducing the rate of the European Central Bank is seen as approaching the limit.
- The American economy added 139 kilos in May, the second higher in 2025, with the unemployment rate at 4.2 %.
- Hot employment data has strengthened the US dollar and treasury revenue, and reduced the hopes of the federal reserve rate.
The euro/US dollar trip extends down its losses on Friday after it reached a six -week increase near 1.1500 Non -agricultural salary statements Numbers in US (The United States) came stronger than expected despite the cooling. Printing led investors to a lower price Federal Reserve (FED), while EURO (EUR) failed to obtain attraction on optimistic economic data, previously revealed. The pair is trading at 1.1386, a decrease of 0.51 %.
Imagine American job data, as revealed by the Bls Statistics Office (BLS), the durability of the labor market and the economy, where the printing was the second highest rate in 2025, and it failed 147,000 registered in April. Thus, the unemployment rate remains unchanged.
As expected, the US dollar is advanced, driven by the leap of American treasury bonds and an optimistic mood among the investors, who bought us Shares Amid the conflict between US President Donald Trump and Eileon Musk.
UN/USD failed to get traction despite the total local product numbers (GDP) that rises higher than the estimates and exceeds the printing of the previous quarter. For a whole year, GDP improved from 1.2 % to 1.5 %, while retail sales also advanced in April.
During the week, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to reduce prices to 2 % with inflation to less than the central bank’s goal, but indicated that it would stop its dilution session. Robert Holsman’s voice to keep prices unchanged, and European Central Bank of Lagarde She hinted that the mitigation cycle is close to its end.
next week , The euro area (The European Union) The economic list will display the European Central Bank surveying cash analysis and industrial production. In the United States’ timeline, the United States’s inflation numbers will include the consumer and the side of the product, as well as the issuance of consumer morale at the University of Michigan (UOM).
The price of the euro this week
The table below shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) against the main currencies listed this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese yen.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | -0.42 % | -0.47 % | 0.70 % | -0.32 % | -0.93 % | -0.94 % | -0.12 % | |
| euro | 0.42 % | -06 % | 1.12 % | 0.09 % | -51 % | -56 % | 0.29 % | |
| GBP | 0.47 % | 0.06 % | 1.20 % | 0.15 % | -0.45 % | -0.50 % | 0.35 % | |
| JPY | -0.70 % | -1.12 % | -1.20 % | -1.01 % | -1.61 % | -1.65 % | -0.90 % | |
| CAD | 0.32 % | -0.09 % | -0.15 % | 1.01 % | -61 % | -65 % | 0.19 % | |
| Aud | 0.93 % | 0.51 % | 0.45 % | 1.61 % | 0.61 % | 0.02 % | 0.92 % | |
| Nzd | 0.94 % | 0.56 % | 0.50 % | 1.65 % | 0.65 % | -02 % | 0.85 % | |
| Chf | 0.12 % | -0.29 % | -0.35 % | 0.90 % | -0.19 % | -0.92 % | -0.85 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent EUR (Base)/USD (quote).
Daily Digest Market: EUR/USD roller stalls on strong US data
- The EUR/USD trend is still sound, but it will be too early to assume that it will remain so, given the uncertainty about American economic data and the eurozone.
- Non -agricultural salaries in the United States increased by 139,000 in May, overcoming the expectations of 130,000, but it is less than 147,000 from April. While the signs of the cooling market are clear, the total conditions are still strong even as the economy slows down.
- The unemployment rate was 4.2 % fixed, which led to the reorganization of prices, as markets now expect less than discounts in the Federal Reserve by the end of 2025.
- According to what was reported, European Central Bank officials expect price discounts at the July meeting, according to Bloomberg. “Some officials sees discounts in borrowing costs as perhaps already ended, while others still support another step – perhaps in September, according to the people.”
- Players in the financial market do not expect the European Central Bank to reduce the rate of deposit facilities by 25 basis points (BPS) at the Monetary Policy meeting in July.
Technical expectations euro: EUR/US dollar under 1.1400
Euro/US dollar is biased upward despite the decline to its lowest levels for two days from 1.1371, where buyers failed to break the 1.1500 mark, which could have aggravated the transition to 1.1600. The momentum fades as the RSI is still ascending but aims at its neutral line. However, as long as the euro remains near the range of 1.1380-1.1400, buyers are responsible.
The next resistance will be 1.1500. The latter’s breach would offer April peak at 1.1572, followed by 1.1600.
On the contrary, then Euro/dollars Lower on June 2 from 1.1344, which is the transition to 1.1300 on the cards. The latter’s violation would display the simple moving average for 20 days (SMA) at 1.1284, followed by SMA for 50 days at 1.1218 and 1.1200.
Common questions about the European Central Bank
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the backup bank. The European Central Bank places interest rates and runs the region’s monetary policy. The state of the European Central Bank is to maintain price stability, which means maintaining inflation by approximately 2 %. Its primary performance is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates usually lead to the most powerful euro and vice versa. The Board of Directors of the European Central Bank is making monetary policy decisions at eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of national banks in the eurozone and six permanent members, including the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde.
In maximum situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called quantitative mitigation. QE is the process that the European Central Bank prints and uses to buy assets – usually government or companies – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually leads to the weakest euro. Ken is the last resort when it is unlikely to achieve interest rates simply the goal of stabilizing prices. The European Central Bank used it during the great financial crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubborn, as well as during the roaming epidemic.
The quantitative tightening (QT) is the opposite of QE. It is implemented after QE when the economic recovery is ongoing and inflation begins to rise. While in QE, the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government bonds and companies from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT, the European Central Bank stops buying more bonds, and stops investing the manager on the bonds that he already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the euro.
