Economists and strategists who probably say or not

If you feel that the American economy was at a stage of will, it is nevertheless with a possible stagnation for a very long time, then you are not wrong.

While the word R, awe, waved on the horizon for years, said, one of the major economists said this week that the risk of stagnation has risen to 90 %. The last time the United States was in a recession was in 2020, during the epidemic.

The recession, or the large contraction in economic activity that lasts for more than a few months, is usually defined as two consecutive quarterly local, negative, or gross domestic product. Passive gross domestic product means that the total value of the goods and services produced decreases – in other words, the economy is shrinking.

Common recession indicators include a decrease in gross domestic product, real income decline, and unemployment.

President Donald Trump said China is facing a tariff of up to 245 %, and its administration has also imposed a 10 % widespread tariff. Ads have fueled new concerns about the possibility of recession, as economists warn of possible effects.

Wipe in the first quarter by Bankrate I found that senior economists believed that the recession became more likely. The survey found that the chances of the recession that occurred in the next 12 months were 36 %, an increase of 26 % in the last quarter of 2024 – and that was before Trump climbed his trade war in April.

Here’s what prominent economists recently said about the possibility of stagnation.

Torsten Släk, Apollo Global Management

Torsten Släk is the best economic expert in Apollo Global Management, a New York Asset Management Company. Slook said in a note to Apollo customers during the weekend that there is now a 90 % chance to enter “the recession of voluntary trade.”

“The customs duties were implemented in a way that was not effective,” said behavior. “Small companies that have been relied on for decades on a stable American system will have to amend immediately and do not have working capital to pay the tariffs. Expect that ships sit abroad, requests that are canceled, and retailers in generations are well managers to apply for bankruptcy.”

SLUNG gave several reasons why small companies shrink a great impact on the economy, including that they explain most of the American jobs and more capital expenses, or investments in the economy, from large companies.

“The bottom line is: If the current level of definitions continues, the sharp slowdown in the American economy is coming.”

Adam Bosen, Peterson International Economy Institute

Adam Bosn, an economist and head of the Peterson Institute for International Economy, a research center based in Washington, DC, said last week that increased inflation is inevitable and there was a great opportunity for stagnation as a result.

Bosen said that there is a 65 % chance for the American economy that slides into the recession and that it can be included in the frightening recession area, where inflation is continuing and growing slow.

He also said that the government appears to be not ready to respond to the inflation it expects, and that the federal reserve was “very loose” with monetary policy.

“If we get inflation, the Federal Reserve will be behind the curve,” he said.

Bill Dodley, former President of the Federal Reserve in New York

Bill Dodley, economist and former head of the FBI in New York, said earlier this month that the recession might be the “best scenario” for the American economy.

In an editorial of Bloomberg, Dodley said that the White House tariff policy may lead to an enlarged 5 % in the next six months.

“If companies pass along the cost of higher imports for consumers, the inflation will be more stable and less lively.

“We have told everything, that the recession is the optimistic scenario. Most likely, the United States will end in a full recession accompanied by higher inflation,” continued.

Bruce Kamman, JB Morgan

JP Morgan said in a memorandum last week that the bank believed that the possibility of the United States entering the recession in 2025 was 60 %.

“Even with the last time of the liberation day measures in Drakconian, the remainder is still sufficient to push the United States and China-probably the global economy-to the recession this year,” said Bruce Kamman, the chief global economist at JP Morgan, said.

The memorandum said that the high tariff in China, along with a 10 % global tariff, increased the average rate of tariff in the United States to 30 % and that it reached $ 1 trillion, or 3 % of GDP, “which makes it the largest tax increase on American families and companies since World War II.”

“The remainder is still sufficient to push the United States and China – and therefore the global economy is likely to stagnate this year,” Kamman said, adding, “There is another important concern that sustainable exciting trade policies and reducing immigration flow may impose permanent supply costs, which reduces long -term growth.”

But the United States can still avoid recession, some say

The strategists at Wales Vargo said earlier this month that there are some major signs that the United States can avoid recession in 2025.

While the bank reduced the expectations of GDP growth, he said that some economic withdrawal may be a strong correction of the year 2024.

“The main economic support remains intact, in our opinion, and it can limit the slowdown,” the strategists wrote. “We see fertile ground to restore moderate growth in the second half.”

Four positive signs included a steady income growth, an increase in family wealth, long -term interest rates decreased, and that financial markets remain liquid.

John Stolzvos, the chief investment strategy in Obenheimer, a New York -based investment bank, has reduced his expectation of S&P 500, but he said he believed the United States will continue to avoid shrinkage.

“When the customs tariff was presented, everything seemed more harsh than we expected,” Stolzvos recently told James Fares to James Fares.

But Stallzfus said he did not believe that the United States is heading towards stagnation, and indicated that recession warnings in recent years were wrong.

Stallzfus, who is generally more upward in stocks and economics, said he believed that financial markets are wrong in Trump’s commercial policy.

“We do not think it is the end of globalization,” he said. “We believe that the end point for this is just a reunification with the benefits of both the advanced and emerging markets outside the United States, to capture some of the business that has been allocated to China for many years.”