In recent days, Bitcoin has witnessed a great outrage, which raises optimism between merchants and pushing expectations towards potential arrival to the psychological threshold. 100,000 dollars. However, with the approaching of May, some analysts urge caution, intelligence in the past in the financial markets: “The sale in May and went away.”
This expression, which grew up in the early years of the London Stock Exchange, indicates the sale of individual sites in May, and then the re -introduction of markets in the fall, due to the historical tendency of the weakest performance during the summer months. Although it originally refers to traditional stock markets, this season appears to extend to the world of cryptocurrencies, It included bitcoin.
The meaning behind “Selle in May and went away”: Stop to the race to $ 100,000 for Bitcoin?
The saying “Sale in May and the Championship” depends on historical data that shows how stock markets in the United States tend to record fewer returns between May and October compared to November to April. Multiple reasons: Low trading volumeand Less institutional activityAnd General decrease in volatility.
According to Jeff Mai, BTSE Operations Manager, “historically, the coming months were weak for financial markets, with many investors after the same.” However, Mei also indicates that this year may be an exception, given this Bitcoin has already reached $ 97,000 Some of the arrows related to growth show signs of recovery. Nevertheless, modern data on US GDP GDP It indicates a risk of stagnation, which can be reduced by capabilities Interest rate discounts.
Bitcoin and seasonal: What does the data say
The cryptocurrency market seems to be also affected by these seasonal dynamics. according to Coinglass dataand Bitcoin often showed weak or negative performance in May In recent years:
- in 2021BTC lost 35 %, marking one of the worst months per year.
- in 2022The decrease was 15 %, due to the collapse of the ecological system.
- in 2023The month was flat or a little positive, with volatile fluctuations.
There were exceptions: in May 2019Bitcoin increased by 52 %, one of the best offers after 2018. However, May months are followed by more declines in June: in the past five years, Four out of five months of June closed in red.
This data does not guarantee future performance, but suggests this The cryptocurrency market has become increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic and seasonal economy coursesJust like traditional stock markets.
Altcoin and Meme Coin: Greater weakness
In addition to Bitcoin, altcoin Especially coins – can also be exposed to corrections in the coming months. After the first quarter that is characterized by bright gatherings, often it is nourished by speculation flow Large recovery.
According to Usi Zade, Operations Manager at the Stock Exchange Peter“Since 1950, S&P 500 has recorded only 1.8 % profit from May to October, with positive revenues only 65 % of time.” This data, despite the indication of the stock market, is useful to understand how Seasonal can also affect the feelings of investors in Cross currencies.
Classical performance: a broader picture
Bitcoin’s semester analysis over the past 12 years, other interesting visions appear:
- the The second quarter (April to June) Average average return by 26 %, but with only average of 7.5 %, indicating a strong strength The fluctuations driven by exceptional events.
- in The third quarter (July-September)The average decrease to 6 %, with a slightly negative average, indicates a stage of Monotheism or fatigue in the afternoon.
Zade emphasizes that ** Fourth Fourth (October to December) ** represents historically the strongest period for Bitcoin, with an average return of 85.4 % and an average of 52.3 %. This enhances the idea You may mark the beginning of a stage of temporary weaknessBefore autumn recovery is possible.
Psychology in the market and the autonomous autonomy
Although the Wall Street calendar does not dictate the rules of the encryption market, Investor psychology It plays an important role. If a sufficient number of merchants begins to believe in the health of “sale in May”, this behavior may be Be a self -fulfilling prophecyExposing sales and fluctuations imposed.
Moreover, if Technical signals Start the deterioration and reflection of feelings, the proverb may gain more strength, which leads to more sales and monotheism.
Undoubted scenario, but not without opportunities
In short, while the bitcoin enthusiasm at $ 100,000 ** continues to grow, historical and seasonal data indicates a cautious approach. It seems that the proverb “selling in May and going out”, although it is established in a completely different context, echoes even in the world of encrypted currencies.
With an increase in institutional participation and the integration of encryption markets in global macroeconomic courses, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are no longer immune to seasonal dynamics. For investors, this means closely monitoring data, avoiding euphoria, and looking at the most advanced risk management strategies in the coming months.
