Donald TrumpWith his aggressive economic policy, it still deeply affects global financial markets. For example, in 2024 The US Securities Market witnessed a 7 % decrease Because of uncertainty about his commercial policies. Its strategy, based on Customs duties And reduce trade deficitIt generates complex dynamics in the bull and bear sectors.
Currently, President Trump has accelerated the implementation of definitions on Canada and MexicoRaise the expected time tables. This type of measure has led to immediate economic repercussions, which led to the impact of domino on international markets.
Donald Trump: The Domino effect of definitions and the risk of inflation
Use Customs duties As a negotiating tool, I created a reaction chain. Tightening commercial policies may lead to an increase in import prices, which caused The risk of global inflation.
Another possible effect is Reducing the value of the competition One of the currencies in the affected countries is an attempt by the countries concerned to achieve a balance between the economic impact. Financial markets already interact with this position, with movements outside their scope that deserves in -depth analysis.
An interesting fact is the performance of European stock exchanges compared to Wall Street. Since the end of November 2024, European stock exchanges have recorded A +5.2 %While you lost Wall Street 3.8 %. This scenario is an homosexual in the global market.
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The bond market and Trump strategy
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If in the stock sector there is a strengthening of European exchanges, in the bond sector, the opposite occurs. the It has spread among the American treasury bonds for 10 years and the German Band Narrowing quickly. Within a few weeks, he went from 230 basis points to 160 basis pointsWhich indicates an increase in US securities purchases.
This means that while Wall Street looks weaker, US government bonds It is purchased with greater intensity compared to Europe. This dynamic refers to a change in the strategy by investors, who see the United States as a safer resort.
Rebalance the trade deficit
Donald Trump seems to be a priority compared to the past. If it aims to maintain high levels of Wall Street, his main goal today is Rebalance the trade deficit Between the United States, The euro and China region.
One of the main strategies to achieve this goal is Reducing the spread between American and European rates. This can lead to a file Reducing the value of dollarWe prefer exports and make imports more expensive.
direction The dollar indexWhich measures the value of the dollar against the currency basket, it shows a clear correlation with price dynamics: When spreading, the dollar is weak. Currently, the dollar index has decreased to less than 100 marksThis indicates a decrease from the highest levels of 2023.
Reducing federal deficit and geopolitical effects
In addition to the re -balance of the trade deficit, Trump and Treasury minister is determined You want to bring Federal deficit Return to more sustainable levels. After two consecutive years above 6 % of GDPThe goal is to deal with pre -values, around them 3 %.
Part of this strategy depends on transferring the economic burden to international allies. For example, Europe will have to Increase its military budget to support UkraineWhile the United States will reduce direct financing.
Trump’s strategic moves, so translate into a global economic balance:
- Less deficit in the United States
- More deficit in Europe and other countries
- Reducing the value of the dollar to stimulate the American export
Effects on financial markets
Trump’s decisions are created Strong fluctuations Between stock markets and bond markets. While European stock exchanges record gains, Wall Street is struggling. On the contrary, US government bonds are bought collectively, while European bonds are pressure.
This strategy can lead the United States to StagnationExcellence Low economic growth and high enlargement. The current economic data indicates a possible slowdown in the American economy:
- It is estimated that the GDP for the first quarter of 2025
- Consumption decreased by 1.3 %, which is a sharp decrease compared to the last quarter of 2024
- Private investments decreased by 3.5 %, a sign of economic uncertainty
Historically, the United States has already faced recession in the 1970s, with economic consequences that led to a strong recession.
Conclusion: Will Trump continue this path?
Donald Trump is trying to do so Reverse the economic model The United States has been described for decades. If the United States has supported in the past the global economy through deficit and imports, its administration today wants it More export and reduce deficit.
This strategy, although it is rational from a commercial point of view, It can generate instability In global financial markets and the development of American economic growth at risk.
For example, in the first quarter of 2025, economic instability already led to The closure of more than 500 manufacturing companies in the United States of AmericaWith a negative impact on the labor market.
The big question is: Will Trump continue this path or change the path before negative effects outweigh the benefits?
