- The Australian dollar will win the ground at the early Asian session on Monday.
- The NBS purchasing managers index rose to 50.5 in March; The index of non -manufactured purchasing managers rose to 50.8.
- The RBA and PMI interest rate decision will be the most prominent events on Tuesday.
The Australian dollar (AUD) will recover some of the lost lands on Monday, supported by encouraging Chinese economic data. The latest data released on Monday showed that the Puritan Manager Index (PMI) in China rose to 50.5 in March, compared to 50.2 in February. Reading came in line with the consensus of the market. Meanwhile, NBS’s non -manufactured purchasing directors index to 50.8 in March compared to 50.4 and stronger than 50.5 expected.
However, the bullish trend of the husband may be limited due to global trade concerns before the planned announcement on Wednesday by US President Donald Trump on mutual definitions. Looking at the future, investors will closely monitor the Australian Reserve Bank interest decision (RBA) on Tuesday. The Australian Central Bank is scheduled to maintain interest rates unchanged at the April meeting, as it is awaiting an electoral campaign that fought on living issues and arranging the economic impact of the unrest that the United States drives in global trade. On the American list, the ISM manufacturing manager will be released for the month of March later on Tuesday.
The Australian dollar is gaining traction before the RBA average decision
- Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that RBA will stand by 4.1 % and adhere to a cautious situation after mitigating for the first time in four years last month.
- The US Economic Analysis Office said on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index in the United States (PCE) increased by 2.5 % on an annual basis in February, according to the US Economic Analysis Office on Friday. This reading matches the market expectations and the reading of January.
- The basic PCE price index, which excludes the prices of volatile food and energy, jumped by 2.8 % on an annual basis in February, higher than the estimate and January 2.7 % (reviewed from 2.6 %). On a monthly basis, the PCE price index and the basic PCe price index increased by 0.3 % and 0.4 %, respectively.
- American personal income increased by 0.8 % on a monthly basis in February, while personal spending increased by 0.4 % during the same period.
- Al -Marajiya merchants continued to pricing in about two cuts at this year’s quarter, while watching them for the first time in July, according to the CME Fedwatch tool.
- Marie Dali, head of the Federal Reserve in San Francisco, said on Friday that she expects price cuts this year, but with strong economic indicators, policy makers can stop lowering prices in order to establish how to adapt companies with customs tariff costs.
The Australian dollar remains stuck in a similar triangular style, but the Haboodi expectations are still in place
AUD/USD trading in a positive area per day. The husband remains covered within the style of the similar triangle on the daily time frame. The declining bias remains intact, and it is characterized by the price that is less than the SIA moving average for 100 days (EMA). However, more monotheism cannot be excluded as the 24 -day relative index (RSI) hovers around the midfield, indicating the neutral momentum in the short term.
The AUD/USD is the first bullish barrier at 0.6330, the highest level on March 26. You can see a strong step above this level rally to 0.6355, EMA for 100 days. To the north, the next obstacle is seen at 0.6375, the upper limits of the similar triangle style.
On the negative side, the lowest level on March 24th works at 0.6262 as a preliminary support level for the husband. If the declining momentum is built under the aforementioned level, this may increase the sale and the AUD/USD withdrawing about 0.6225, which is the minimum of the triangle style. The additional negative side to watch is 0.6186, the lowest level on March 4.
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country gains from its exports in exchange for what it pays to its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends to buy imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
