Singapore, April 29, 2025 / PRNEWSWIRE / – HTX Deepthink Created to explore global overall trends, major economic indicators and major developments in the encryption industry. In a world where volatility is the base, HTX Deepthink aims to help readers.Find the matter in chaos“
This week, Bitcoin rose to $ 95,000, as President Trump pointed to a softer position on the definitions, which strengthened the market morale. However, uncertainty about commercial negotiations continues. With critical economic data versions on the horizon, you may offer a brief but important window for encryption markets. In this edition of HTX Deepthink, Chloe (@Chloetalk1) From HTX Research, the variable total scene and determines the main risks and opportunities for the space of digital assets.
Trump’s second hundred -day agenda: submitting promises, arresting the next wave
On his first 100 days, President Trump has implemented many friendly measures for encryption, including improving the organizational framework in Stablecoin and government spending cut through Doge. After that, the White House will focus on putting the finishing touches on trade agreements and progress in the peaceful effort of Russia – Ukraine, while pressing the “large and dumbbell” package – which leads to the large tax cuts, strong measures of border security, regulating organizational declines – and securing the Senate from Pit21 to provide a clear framework for the regulation of the United States.
Market Summary last week: Driving drivers and major programs
Last week, the encryption markets were initially separated from American stocks, driven by the dollar weakness, increased encryption allocations from traditional companies and financial institutions, and the rise in Stablecoin, and continuous net flows to the Bitcoin -Bitcoin investment funds up to $ 88,000. Later, the diluted speech on customs duties strengthened by President Trump and Treasury Secretary Pesinit feelings. However, although the signals of commercial progress were encouraging, the actual agreements remain months away, and the solid tariffs within the administration still have a great impact, which constitutes a great uncertainty in expectations.
The next main data: short and medium -term turning points
The total calendar this week is pivotal.
- April 30 @ 12:30 UTC: US Q1 GDP (expected 0.2-0.4 %, decrease from 2.4 %) and Core PCE (month month: ~ 0.1 %)
- May 2 @ 12:30 World time: Non -agricultural salary statements in April (estimated at 130 thousand compared to 228 kg) and unemployment rate (fixed by 4.2 %)
If the data shows weakening growth but reduce inflation, it will enhance the cuts in the middle of the year and probably raise risk assets such as bitcoin and ethereum side by side. On the contrary, if all measures exceed predictions, the rates of price rate may be delayed or the price fears are revived, and the cabinet and the dollar revenues are led higher and the weight of the coding market in the short term.
In extreme cases:
- Total domestic product + job losses → selling pan
- Hot inflation + stop growth → shows the risk of stagnation
The Federal Reserve maintains a stability: “Self -preservation” behind a technically valid rate reduction
As of now, the Fed Federal Reserve Business balances are about $ 3.3 trillion, and the reverse decrease overnight at $ 94 billion, and the public treasury account remains high – technically allowed to reduce average. However, in the fiscal year 2024, the Federal Reserve paid $ 226.8 billion of interest on reserves and RRP, with only $ 158.8 billion in treasury and MBS, which led to a net loss of $ 77.5 billion. Reducing the average of 0.3 PPT reduces the annual wallet income by about $ 20 billion by $ 6.7 trillion of assets, expanding losses and reducing transfers to the US Treasury. To maintain its financial sustainability and political independence, the Federal Reserve has chosen to maintain prices unchanged.
Liquidity window and summer risks: the timing of the optimum input
If this week’s data is in line with the slowdown, a brief liquidity window may provide the money again to encryption. However, as soon as the debt ceiling is raised – in June to July – the Treasury will re -fill TGA to 50-60 billion dollars by issuing new bonds and depleting equivalent liquidity from the markets. Short -term rates will rise, and the risk assets will be subjected to pressure; Historically, Bitcoin and the broader market decreased from 5 % to 10 % in the weeks that followed this TGA rebuilding. Therefore, investors should take advantage of the early window while hedging to drain the summer liquidity.
Expectations: Stay disciplined, follow the direction
Against the background of cross -policy stimuli and liquidity transformations, tactics close to the near -term versions of the main data and the May liquidity window should focus, while the long -term interest centers on the implementation of Fit21 and the continuous institutional dependence of BTC and other assets such as Solana. The following main baccalaureate may arise under these double -dispute winds – to provide this opportunity.
*The above content is not an investment advice and does not constitute any offer or request to submit or recommend any investment product.
About HTX Research
HTX Research It is the search arm for the HTX group, responsible for conducting in -depth analyzes, producing comprehensive reports, providing expert assessments through a wide range of topics, including cryptocurrency, Blockchain technology, and emerging market trends.
