Tom Lee of Fundstrat says that the US stock market is still in the bull race, believes that S&P 500 has recorded a decrease in the price this year
Investor Tom Li says American stocks are still in the middle of the bull cycle after completing the regular prices.
In a new video update for investors on YouTube channel for Fundstrat, the company’s chief investment employee says it is confident that the S&P 500 has already been printed low, but it is not sure whether the V -shaped rapid recovery such as 2020 will play or if uniform in the lines of 2011 will reveal.
Li tells the investor interpretation of many risks, such as customs tariffs and inflation expectations, will probably decide the next step for the stock market.
“I think we are still in a stunning market. I am not only clear if this V -shaped recovery is like 2020 or it is a market like 2011.
Intuitively, I will say it makes sense that we made a bottom, but we may have a little bit. This is because people are concerned that there are other shoes to drop them. The war of customs tariffs with China can turn into a cold war. Investors will call for concern about the effects of this shock, which leads to global recession. These are extreme views, by the way.
[Or] Some people will worry about a financial crisis of all this distinction, and that inflation expectations can rise to the extent that we get “greed”. This is where companies are mainly raising prices, and will force the Federal Reserve to rise. Of course, if estimates decrease by more than 20 %, the shares have a negative aspect because the stock market has already had a 20 % clouds. “
Lee shares a scheme that shows that only 6 % of the shares in the S&P 500 are higher than the moving average for 50 days, and only 19 % higher than the moving average for 200 days. The investor says that from a historical point of view, the preparation had high winning rates.
“This is the percentage of shares above the moving average for 50 days at the top, and above the moving average for 200 days at the bottom. Less than 20 % is a big deal, because over the past 16 years, the S&P has been six months and 12 months old. In fact, if you looked at a later time, outside 2022, the stock market was higher after three months every time each time, so I think we have succeeded in performing an organizational process.”
As of Friday, the S&P 500 is traded at 5,282 points.
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