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Arthur Hayes, the chief investment official of Maelstrom and co -founder, as well as the former CEO of Bitmex, has published a new article entitled “The Ugly”, where he claims that Bitcoin can be ready to deeply decline in the near term before at the end a march to its highest levels. While keeping a distinctive frankness, Hayes puts a scenario when purchasing bitcoin.
Buy bitcoin if this happens
Hayes article It begins by narrating a sudden shift in the feelings he was arrested. When comparing the financial analysis of the country on a sleeping volcano, Hayes remembers how just a hint of the risk of collapse forced him to stop and re -evaluate. It expresses an unstable feeling similarly towards the current monetary conditions, and it is an intuition that says it was the last time in late 2021, before the encryption markets collapsed from record levels.
“The exact movements between the levels of the public budget of the central bank, the rate of expansion of bank credit, the relationship between the Treasury/Stock/Bitcoin in the United States, and the crazy memecoin price procedures in my stomach,” he writes, “Emphasizing that these signals mention it collectively to the situation is not The stable in the market before shrinkage in 2022 and 2023. He shows that he does not believe that the broader bull cycle has ended, but it is expected that Bitcoin will decrease to a place between 70,000 dollars to $ 75,000 before the gathering sharply to reach $ 250,000 by solutions The end of the year.
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This range describes as reasonable given that stock markets and cabinet markets appear, as he put it, deeply intertwined in the “Filty Fiat” environment that is still struggling with the residue of inflation and high interest rates. Hayes notes that MAELSTROM, its investment company, is still on a long time at a time when it raises its shares at USDE Stablecoins to buy Bitcoin again if the price decreases to less than 75,000 dollars.
In his opinion, he allows him to increase the short -term risk to maintain the capital that can be published later when filtering occurs in the original market. It determines a 30 % correction of the current levels as a distinct potential, also recognizing that the upscale momentum can continue. “If Bitcoin is trading through $ 110,000 on a strong size with an open PERP interest, I will throw in the towel and buy higher risks,” he writes in the second scenario.
In an attempt to decipher the reason for a temporary decline, Hayes confirms that the major central – federal reserves in the United States, Popular Bank of China, and Japan Bank – either as fund building or in some cases, in some cases, raise the price of money by allowing the return to rise. He believes that these transformations can suffocate speculative capital, which has raised both inventory and cryptocurrencies in recent months.
His discussion of the United States focuses on two interlocking perspectives: that the treasury revenues for ten years can rise to an area ranging from 5 % and 6 %, and that the federal reserve, although it is hostile to the administration of Donald Trump, will not hesitate to re -print if it becomes necessary to preserve American financial stability.
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However, he believes that at some point, the financial system will need intervention – and it is more likely to exempt the percentage of complementary leverage (SLR) or a new wave of quantitative mitigation. It claims that the frequency or slow federal reserves to take these steps increases the possibility of selling the bond market in the short term, which can weigh on stocks, in connection, bitcoin.
His political analysis in the ongoing enmity between Trump and the President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, as well as the willingness of the Federal Reserve to thwart a crisis during the Baiden presidency. He cited statements from former Federal Reserve Governor William Dodley and notes of the press conference indicated by Powell, which indicates that the Federal Reserve may change its approach based on Trump’s policies.
Hayes describes these tensions as a background for a scenario in which Trump may allow a mini -financial crisis to reveal, forcing the federal reserve hand. Under this pressure, the Federal Reserve will have little option to prevent the broader collapse, and cash expansion can be followed after that. It is suggested that it would be appropriate politically to allow the Trump administration to allow the returns to raise the crisis levels if this means that the Federal Reserve will have to the wide -range cash axis that many expect in encryption circuits.
China, according to Hayes, was preparing to join the liquidity party through an explicit reflection program until a sudden sympathy in January, when PBOC stopped the bond purchase program and allowed the yuan to settle in a stronger situation. This political change is attributed to internal political pressures or perhaps a strategic maneuver for future negotiations with Trump.
Hayes also admits that some readers may find the relationship between Bitcoin and the traditional risks that confuse, given the long -term argument that bitcoin is a unique store of value. However, it indicates the plans that show a 30 -day high connection between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100.
In the short term, he says, the leading cryptocurrency remains sensitive to changes in light liquidity, even if the currency is ultimately trading on an unrelated basis to extended time prospects. Thus, Bitcoin is depicted as a pioneering indicator: if the bonds give the height of stock and stock markets, Bitcoin may start diving before following technology shares. Hayes believes that once the authorities are launched, cash stimulation is renewed to renew the fluctuations of volatility, Bitcoin will be the first to the bottom and apostasy.
He admits that predicting accurate results is impossible and that any investor must play perceived possibilities instead of certainty. His decision is derived from the concept of expected value. If it is believed that there is a great opportunity to decrease 30 % compared to a smaller possibility that Bitcoin will continue to the top before deciding to buy again by 10 %, which reduces exposure still results in a better percentage of risks.
And he confirms: “Trading is not related to correction or error,” but about trading the possibilities and maximizing the expected value. “It also confirms that this preventive position allows him to wait for the type of liquidation that is liquidated in Altcoins, which often accompanies the short -term Bitcoin collapse, a scenario he calls” Armageddon “in the so -called” Sitcoin Space “. In such circumstances, he wants abundant money to receive mainly sound symbols at highly depressed prices.
At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 102,530.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
