Analysts warn that executives are in distress and consumers fear job losses amid “stagnation shock”.

• The recession is a mixture of slow growth and high inflation Commercial wars are “stagnation shock”, according to the Apollo Global Administration. In a new research note in which the chief economist Torsten Slok participated, the company expects a series of events that may lead to an economic catastrophe.

Latter A set of definitions The Trump administration has announced the ability to run the recession by the summer of 2025, according to Jadid. a report From the global administration Apollo.

Based on the possible APOLLO sequence of events, freight containers slowed from China to the United States after the Tahrir Day’s tariff speech this month. Allow 20 to 40 days travel, containers that are shipped to American ports can stop in May. By mid -May, this would transfer a rapid slowdown in the demand for truck transport, which will be followed by less shares in the stores they honor on people. Through these signs, this means slow sales in the spring, while subsequent layoffs in retail and truck transport may come by late May and early June. Then, in the summer of 2025, the full recession can be rooted.

The APOLLO report, which was co -authored by the chief economist Torsten Slok, assistant director Rajvi Shah, and Assistant Galwankar, draws a bleak economic look, and is mainly a warning that the American economy is moving at a rapid pace for stagnation due to commercial breakdown.

The warning signs have already appeared despite the announcement of the Trump tariff plan just weeks ago. The APOLLO report specifically defines commercial wars as a source of stagnation as it causes delay in economic activity due to disturbances in the supply chain and low trade sizes. At the same time, commercial approvals usually raise prices on the cost of imported goods while reducing competition. The dreaded recession is caused by a mixture of slow growth or recession and increased inflation. There was no Sustainable period From the main recession in four decades.

Note Apollo Research warns important morale indicators at work in a short time and the way consumers responds is the reason for extreme attention.

The CEO of confidence has declined

chief executive officer‘s The latest scanning Among the confidence of the CEO indicates a decrease in optimism, with 62 % of senior executives now expecting a slowdown or stagnation in six months.

Executive chiefs surveyed who expected severe stagnation from 9 % in March to 14 % in April, chief executive officerA monthly survey was found. Moreover, about 84 % of CEOs have reported the growth of expected revenues at the beginning of the year, while only 49 % expected revenues to grow in 2025 when the executives were inquired again in April.

Only 9 % of CEOs expected revenues to decrease at the beginning of the year, compared to 44 % in the April poll.

The sharp fall in optimism is associated with a similar decrease in a positive view between consumers.

Low feelings of consumer

in New scheme On Sunday, Slok, the chief economist in Apollo, indicated that a high share of new record families only performs the minimum payments on credit card balances.

the Federal Reserve Philadelphia It revealed that credit card assets show signs of “consumer distress”. The percentage of accounts that pay the minimum for 12 years based on the data of the Federal Reserve, while the scales of delinquency were close to or set new levels.

At the same time, people are increasingly concerned that they will lose their jobs, as explained by the Apollo report.

the Michigan UniversityInstitute of Social Research Consumer survey The consumer morale index decreased to 52.1 in April, a decrease from 57 in March. on Two -thirds of consumers I think unemployment will rise this year, which is up to twice up to six months, according to the director of the Institute and Economist Joan Hsu, whom I conveyed in an update.

“In anxious development, consumers are increasingly anxious that their income horizons may get worse as well,” she continued.

Michigan’s survey revealed that less than 50 % believe that their own income will increase this year, and about two -thirds believe that their purchasing power will decrease in the coming months.

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com