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After declaring the “liberation day” tariff for President Donald Trump on April 2, the possibility of stagnation increased through the leading economic followers, which put bitcoin at maximum alert. KALSHI prediction markets are now 53 %, which is 8.1 % of the previous estimates, and Polymarket has increased to 54 %.
The shock of tariffs and the high possibility of recession
After President Trump’s recent move to impose higher duties – the “Tahrir Day” tariff targeting major commercial partners in the United States, including a 34 % tax on imports from China and 20 % on those from the European Union – the predictors have declined the chances of stagnation to the top.
The possibilities were to update Through many respected institutions and platforms: besides Kalshi and Polymarket, Larry Samars pointed to a 50 % possibility, while JPMorgan puts the opportunity by 40 %. According to the CNBC Federal Reserve Survey, the probabilities are 36 %, with Moody’s Analytics and Pimco expect a 35 % chance. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs has reviewed its position significantly, as it is now estimated at 35 %, up from 20 % previously.
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Jpmorgan warns that these definitions can lead to a “annual tax increase of $ 660 billion in Americans”, which may add 2 % to local inflation. The risk of harmful effect is emphasized by converting consumer confidence data and the possibility that is waving on the horizon of revenge trade measures from partners such as Canada and the European Union.
Goldman Sachs presented, in the March 30th Memorandum, realistic forecast for 2025. According to the team: “We now see the possibility of recession for a period of 12 months by 35 %. The upgrade from our previous 20 % estimates reflects a decrease primarily in the basis for the late economic and confidence in work, and designs from the White House indicating an increase in their number of growth in economic.
What does this mean for Bitcoin
Bob Lucas, the famous encryption dealer, acquired the market morale on X, I write: “I started thinking that we are heading to stagnation or bear market, and perhaps more moderate, but it seems likely to be. […] We must take it seriously. However, I think the time has come to stay away from the “DIP” habit that we have been over during the Taurus market. […] It may not end as a disaster, but focus on potential gains may mean overcoming real risks. […] The bonds look like a good bet, and the capital should flow somewhere. “
With regard to Bitcoin, Lucas Confirm The difficult situation for the investor with regard to the pro -BTC policy: a difficult instinct, an instinct says it is struggling, but I can see it to withstand as a kind of digital gold, especially since the administration seems to want to succeed, outside the things of commercial policy. Perhaps there is some bias in this last statement. “
Aksel Kibar (Techchars), a technician in the legal market and the former action manager, confirmed Lucas’s position shortly through the comment, “Agreed.”
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At the same time, londoncryptoclub (@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@s Federal Reserve prices by 75-100 basis points during the remaining period of 2025.
analyst He writes Via X: “This is a type of bitcoin key. If the Federal Reserve treats inflation caused by customs tariffs as” passing “. [… ] It focuses on growth support, then real prices decrease […] Bitcoin will fly. The financial conditions are currently reduced by a low dollar and the return (although it is monitoring the spread of credit). […] Bitcoin front works on liquidity […] Ultimately, all this ends with the compulsion of the federal reserve, provided that the liquidity provides in the last resort […] Bitcoin will end this year much higher. The path will be just a very volatile path. “
Macro Alex Kirger (@krugermacro) warned against the interaction between cash dilution and stagnation: “The cuts are usually in the federal reserve without stagnation up. Usually the discounts in the federal reserve with stagnation are downward. This was a major discussion point in 2024.”
Powell speech: A pivotal moment
In light of the unexpected definitions of President Trump, the statements scheduled for Friday by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have been taken in the field of renewal. Powell had previously made it clear that monetary policy was still restricted, given the continued inflation over the goal of the Fed Bank by 2 %. However, the customs tariff provides a potential double link: the high costs of consumers that can pay inflation more, as well as withdrawal on economic growth that holds the labor market expectations.
Andy Brenner described the speech as “one of the most important speeches of Powell in three years.” The Federal Reserve Chair is scheduled to speak at 11:25 am.
At the time of the press, BTC was traded at $ 83,197.
Distinctive image created with Dall.e, Chart from TradingView.com
