With President Donald Trump’s controversial commercial effects on the economy, the possibility of the United States recession increases sharply.
Nice Data It was retrieved by the Finbold from the Al -Rahan Market platform Calchi.
In the early hours of April 5, the number increased for a period of approximately 65 %, the highest level in the past year. For context, the possibility of recession was low to 17 % at the beginning of 2025.
This momentum was primarily driven by increasing concerns about President Trump’s tariff that was recently imposed to reduce the largest trade deficit of the United States. The move sparked a global violent reaction and increased fears of the trade war, especially with countries such as China and members of the European Union.
The immediate impact was a sharp decrease in the global financial markets. For example, on April 4, DOW decreased by 5.5 %, lost S&P 500 %, and the Nasdaq Stock Exchange fell by 5.8 %, the worst loss in one day since the epidemic. In the midst of this recession, it is estimated that the US stock market has lost $ 11 trillion since February 19.
Wall Street takes the recession
Wall Street also started echoing possible stagnation warnings. For example, the JPMorgan bank giant became the first main entity in Wall Street to formally expect an American stagnation in 2025, pointing to the impact of the new definitions.
According to the bank’s chief economist, Michael Feli, the potential recession will be characterized by increased inflation, slow growth and high unemployment. The Foundation reviewed the possibility of stagnation, and set the number by 60 %.
On the other hand, the chief economist in MOODY analysis believes that Trump’s tariff is likely to lead to an imminent stagnation. Zandy expects a sharp decrease in economic growth and an increase in unemployment to 7.5 % by next year.
Meanwhile, the economists in Deutsche Bank seemed to warn, saying that Trump’s tariff could reduce economic growth in the United States in 2025 with the pushing of the basic inflation to the top. The bank added that the recession will rise financially “if the customs tariff remains in place.
“These procedures can fly 1 – 1.5 [percentage points] From growth this year and add a wide amount of basic PCE enlargement. <...> The recession risk is likely to rise financially if these definitions are sustainable, “the bank He said.
This comes when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised concerns, and warned that definitions may lead to slower growth and higher enlargement than expected.
As FinBold mentioned, recession also affects the global economy, with the escalation of trade tensions that contribute to contraction, according to Nigel Green, CEO of Global Financial Devere Group.
Distinctive image via Shutterstock
